By my count, of the 37 QBs taken in Round 1 since 2011, only 8 have been what you can call a success for the team that drafted them, and only 1 sort of lead their team to a Super Bowl win (Wentz, but we all know that Nick Foles did that). That’s a 21.6% rate of success. This is why looking for “generational talent” in the first round is a fool’s errand. And when applied to this franchise that has shown very little ability to identify and develop QB talent in the draft, it’s absolutely moronic.
Anyway, here’s my list and Hit/Miss count. Note that there are more “hits” in recent classes b/c we don’t know how they’ll turn out (Burrow who I love, has 2 season ending injuries, Kyler Murray, one, etc.). I think it’s too soon to say anything about 2022 class.
2021
Trevor Lawrence – Hit (probably) (1)
Zach Wilson – Miss
Justin Fields – Miss (probably)
Trey Lance – Miss
Mac Jones - Miss
2020
Joe Burrow – Hit (probably) (2)
Tua Tagovailoa – Hit (probably) (3)
Justin Herbert – Miss (probably)
Jordan Love – Miss (probably)
2019
Kyler Murray – Hit (maybe, more like TBD) (4)
Daniel Jones – Miss
Dwayne Haskins - Miss
2018
Baker Mayfield – Miss
Sam Darnold – Miss
Josh Allen – Hit (5)
Josh Rosen – Miss
Lamar Jackson – Hit (6)
2017
Mitchell Trunbisky – Miss (lol)
Patrick Mahomes – Hit
Deshaun Watson - Miss
2016
Jared Goff – Miss
Carson Wentz – Miss
Paxton Lynch – Miss
2015
Jameis Winston – Miss
Marcus Mariota - Miss
2014
Blake Bortles – Miss
Johnny Manziel – Miss
Teddy Bridgewater - Miss
2013
EJ Manuel – Miss
2012
Andrew Luck – Hit (7)
RGIII – Miss
Ryan Tannehill – Miss
Brandon Weeden – Miss
2011
Cam Newton – Hit (8)
Jake Locker – Miss
Blain Gabbert – Miss
Christian Ponder – Miss
Good QB play is a prerequisite to participate in this league. There are actually a ton of teams like us that have been terrible for over a decade because of this same reason.
We need to keep drafting QBs. I don’t care if we draft a QB the next 3 years in a row.
Houston went from the worst team in the league to a playoff contender with Stroud, Miami is a playoff contender with Tua, Jacksonville is a playoff contender with Lawrence.
So what’s your alternative? Just give up and turn the Bears into a soccer franchise? The fact first round picks have a chance at busting doesn’t mean you should whine and just give up, besides that picking in the first round is the best method at getting a franchise qb by far. Good qbs don’t hit free agency and later round qbs have an even higher rate of busting.
If I were a GM, I would always trade out of No. 1.
If I were Bears GM, I’d take MHJ, trade the other pick, and take 3 OLs in the first 2 rounds if I can.
This is the same dude that is asking for one more year of flus getsy and fields.
“Woah guys, a lot of draft picks don’t pan out, maybe the Bears should just avoid drafting in general??”
Or, the opposite point, take as many shots as you can at draft picks. It’s a numbers game.
And when applied to this franchise that has shown very little ability to identify and develop QB talent in the draft, it’s absolutely moronic.
This is absolutely my favorite criticism about the Bears and argument against them drafting a QB because if you believe this to be true, why be a fan of this team? Setting aside the fact that it is fatalist nonsense, if you’re resigned to the fate that the Bears will never be able to draft and develop a QB, just cut your losses and find a new team to follow.
See this post (one of the best ever on this sub) for why this is ridiculous
That post is far from one of the best ever. He gets the types of fans right, but the complete ignorance of our QB failures in citing only Trubisky and Fields as QBs that failed here is pretty unforgivable.
I’m not sure what your prescription is. You list Fields as a miss, and I agree with that. So even if your 22% success rate for 1st round QBs is accurate and representative (which I’d argue it isn’t because we’d likely be drafting a #1 or #2 overall QB, not just a first rounder), wouldn’t you prefer a 22% chance of finding the guy over a 100% chance of sticking with someone who isn’t?
including Dwayne Haskins as a miss is such a weird thing to do. He played 16 total games - not even a full NFL season. Using him as a reason to not draft a 1st round QB is just so weird to me.
but anyway, terrible post in general
I just scrolled through the responses here. Unbelievable how sensitive everyone is to this post. I don’t even know what there is to argue here. The OP doesn’t even say what you should or shouldn’t do but just because it doesn’t support the narrative of draft their QB they want they’re flipping out.
Bro said hit (probably) about burrow
What is the criteria for hit vs miss? Cause this just seems, like, your opinion man.
So that’s your reasoning to not pick a QB again? That’s kinda dumb
Let’s check the % chance on a QB taken mid round or undrafted, shall we
Data proves first QB drafted has a higher hit rate than QBs drafted later. Trubisky is an exception rather than the rule.