By my count, of the 37 QBs taken in Round 1 since 2011, only 8 have been what you can call a success for the team that drafted them, and only 1 sort of lead their team to a Super Bowl win (Wentz, but we all know that Nick Foles did that). That’s a 21.6% rate of success. This is why looking for “generational talent” in the first round is a fool’s errand. And when applied to this franchise that has shown very little ability to identify and develop QB talent in the draft, it’s absolutely moronic.
Anyway, here’s my list and Hit/Miss count. Note that there are more “hits” in recent classes b/c we don’t know how they’ll turn out (Burrow who I love, has 2 season ending injuries, Kyler Murray, one, etc.). I think it’s too soon to say anything about 2022 class.
2021
Trevor Lawrence – Hit (probably) (1)
Zach Wilson – Miss
Justin Fields – Miss (probably)
Trey Lance – Miss
Mac Jones - Miss
2020
Joe Burrow – Hit (probably) (2)
Tua Tagovailoa – Hit (probably) (3)
Justin Herbert – Miss (probably)
Jordan Love – Miss (probably)
2019
Kyler Murray – Hit (maybe, more like TBD) (4)
Daniel Jones – Miss
Dwayne Haskins - Miss
2018
Baker Mayfield – Miss
Sam Darnold – Miss
Josh Allen – Hit (5)
Josh Rosen – Miss
Lamar Jackson – Hit (6)
2017
Mitchell Trunbisky – Miss (lol)
Patrick Mahomes – Hit
Deshaun Watson - Miss
2016
Jared Goff – Miss
Carson Wentz – Miss
Paxton Lynch – Miss
2015
Jameis Winston – Miss
Marcus Mariota - Miss
2014
Blake Bortles – Miss
Johnny Manziel – Miss
Teddy Bridgewater - Miss
2013
EJ Manuel – Miss
2012
Andrew Luck – Hit (7)
RGIII – Miss
Ryan Tannehill – Miss
Brandon Weeden – Miss
2011
Cam Newton – Hit (8)
Jake Locker – Miss
Blain Gabbert – Miss
Christian Ponder – Miss
I just scrolled through the responses here. Unbelievable how sensitive everyone is to this post. I don’t even know what there is to argue here. The OP doesn’t even say what you should or shouldn’t do but just because it doesn’t support the narrative of draft their QB they want they’re flipping out.