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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • I threw this question out yesterday in a thread (I don’t think anyone answered it).

    Would you be willing to draft MHJ with our earlier first round pick, and trade down a little with our other first rounder to target a QB other than Caleb Williams or Drake Maye?

    Opinions would boil down to three things: what you think of Fields potential, what you think of the potential of the QBs projected at the top of the draft, and what you think of Marvin Harrison Junior. Personally, I think Marvin Harrison Jr is the best prospect in the draft, I’m neither in nor out on Fields at the moment, but am also skeptical of Williams and Maye. It also looks like there are a few other intriguing QBs. I am sure my opinion on Fields will firm up one way or the other after these next five games and my opinions on all of the draft prospects will be fluid until the actual draft, but that was one possibility I meditated on. Making the change at QB, but taking the best prospect first and a guy like Jayden Daniels a little later.



  • Was this the Bizarro Lions game or what? Particularly with Fields.

    Lions: Fields looks great up until the last possession when he fumbles instead of pulling something clutch out of his ass. Before then, the team and coaches let him down.

    Vikings: Fields looked mediocre and had some drop backs where he held onto the ball for a year down the stretch. The team (defense) came through for him almost more than any QB deserves after he fumbles away opportunities to ice the game. But then on the last drive he IS clutch and puts us in a position to win the game.

    We were grading Fields performances the last 7 games. Despite the loss, I would put the Lions game into the good column and despite the win I’d put the Vikings game into the bad column.


  • I remember seeing similar posts about Ryan Pace (and Emery for that matter). The trouble is, they are not scouts. It’s great that they are very good at scouting, don’t get me wrong, but they have to have a vision for the team and a long term plan for how to sustain success. Whiffing on coaching, or getting players who independently are very talented but don’t complement each other, are set backs. Not having the right mix of leadership. Not having the support staff and support resources to enhance players’ performance (tech, nutrition, facilities, psych staff, fitness staff, etc.) are set backs. Having a robust scouting and analytics apparatus… I could go on.

    Scouting talent well is necessary, but its not sufficient. I wouldn’t write off Poles as being successful at that other stuff, but he hasn’t proven it yet.



  • The Eagles and Niners have bucked the trend of building around a QB and have instead built FOR a QB. That’s the essence of this thread. Do we go with the “genie with 1000 helpers” model and just keep cycling through new QBs until we find one? Or do we “build the best race car then find a driver” model and take the highest floor/highest ceiling talent available?

    I know there are some here that are adamant that Fields is terrible and has no upside. If you believe that, you’re probably not amenable to the SF/Philly model. Personally, I think Fields is a good, talented QB who CAN be great if he gets a tick more decisive with the football. I’d prefer the SF/Philly model so if he does work through his flaw, we have a team around him with overwhelming talent, and if he’s so limited by his flaw we need to start over, we can at least have an optimal situation for the next guy.





  • Not sure why this is downvoted. I am a Fields supporter but this is 100% true and important. If he can’t be more decisive then he’s just too limited to continue with.

    I do want to add though, this is also a big data point for coaching and player acquisition/development… not just QB.

    If Mr HITS Principle is preaching not to put the ball in harms way at any cost, he may be contributing to the problem. If the GM isn’t getting the linemen who can protect adequately or WRs who can separate, that could contribute as well. I think with the latter there has been A LOT of improvement since last year. I have suspicions about how Flus is coaching to this though.


  • The article is from 2020 which is why it’s about the 2019 season. But it’s true- a sack is almost always as bad or worse than a pick. And if your HC is so turnover conscious that he scares the QB out of pulling the trigger, he’s contributing to more losses than wins and should be fired.

    1. Fumbles- If you look up the players that fumble the most it is almost exclusively QBs at the top of the list. And those are primarily strip sacks.

    2. While not every fumble is a fumble lost, a fumble lost is almost always worse than a pick because it’s behind the line of scrimmage.

    3. Sacks are obviously worse than incompletions because they are behind the line of scrimmage.

    4. Injuries- Want to lose a lot of games, start your back up QB for most of the season or play your dinged up starter. How do QBs get injured, usually on sacks.

    5. Also goes without saying, but negative plays are how punters get more playing time.

    I’m a supporter of Fields, but the rate he takes sacks at softens the support A LOT. He needs to be more decisive and that is an area that HAS to improve. I do suspect that since the “T” in HITS used to be for “turnovers/ takeaways” before it became “the ball” that Eberflus emphasizes not throwing the ball if there is an iota of a chance it can be intercepted which probably doesn’t help.

    I’ve been pounding the table about throwing the ball 35+ times per game in order to get a concrete evaluation on our QB situation. Every sack is a pass attempt that could have happened.



  • When they say Caleb Williams would be less expensive, that would only be the case if Fields earned a big second contract. In which case, good deal! But the first pick in the 2024 draft will be more expensive than the 11th pick in the 2021 draft, the only draft where players got cheaper than the previous year. And if you assume they would BOTH be good enough to earn second contracts, then you also have to consider the second contract Caleb Williams would earn would be higher than Fields’ second contract because of the time value of money.

    The decision to draft a QB really should ONLY depend on whether you think the QB you are drafting will be better. This “clock resetting” argument that crops up sounds smart but is pretty dumb.


  • When they say Caleb Williams would be less expensive, that would only be the case if Fields earned a big second contract. In which case, good deal! But the first pick in the 2024 draft will be more expensive than the 11th pick in the 2021 draft, the only draft where players got cheaper than the previous year. And if you assume they would BOTH be good enough to earn second contracts, then you also have to consider the second contract Caleb Williams would earn would be higher than Fields’ second contract because of the time value of money.

    The decision to draft a QB really should ONLY depend on whether you think the QB you are drafting will be better. This “clock resetting” argument that crops up sounds smart but is pretty dumb.



  • You need pass attempts to get 300 yard games. I’ve been pounding the table about this. Fields only has three career games with 35+ pass attempts while there are 12 teams averaging more than that this year. If you look at that stat line for Mahomes, he had 43 pass attempts? Of course he’s going to have a history of volume passing yards, they throw the ball more. A lot more.

    Some of this is on Fields. He has historically been a tick slow making decisions and takes sacks that could be pass attempts. But some of this is on the play calling which is consistently conservative. If you add back the sacks and scrambles, we still don’t pass enough for Fields to prove he can put up numbers like that. If his completion percentage was in the toilet, that would be one thing. But that is fine.

    Fields may not be capable of putting up many 300 yard games. The trouble is, we will never know if we decide to make Khalil Herbert the star of the offense.