No of that really matters. If you draft a QB first round it’s basically a 33% chance he is good, 33% chance it goes meh, and 33% chance he sucks or is always injured.

You can move the percentages up and down but they almost always fall into there is a greater chance things don’t work out.

Since 2018, there have been 21 QBs drafted first round. Out of those you’d want Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Stroud. Maybe you’d want Lawerence, Fields, Murray.

So out of the last five years and 21 QBs taken in the first you’d want 5 of the 21. Maybe another 4 of 21 you could make an argument for.

If you try and say just focus on QBs taken 1.01. That’s Young, Lawerence, Burrow, Murray, and Mayfield. That’s five guys. Burrow is the best but has missed almost two full seasons. So even at 1.01 you’re betting on a 20% chance you get a franchise changer.

I think the most rational take is keep all options open and see where things are at week 18.

I know we have a roughly ~45% for the first pick. But we have a higher percentage we don’t. If we aren’t picking 1 or 2, drafting a QB is basically off the table.

I know this sub hates Eberflus, fine I get it, but be careful what you wish for. It’s estimated almost a third of NFL teams might be looking for new head coaches. Last year there were five head coaching changes. It’s estimated there will be between 7-13 this year. If as a sub we hate over paying for free agents - imagine over paying for a hot OC with no prior coaching experience.

Everybody gets a game ball! I have a feeling that quote is going to be sarcastically used around Chicago for the next five years.

It’s very 2018 Nagy Bears. Hot for a good 20 game period. Then everyone figures you out and it stops working.

I like how we think the guy (Warren) who has had like 3 jobs in five years is somehow loyal or long term focused to anything but himself. He likes big wins to pad his resume. Vikings stadium, Big10 expansion and tv deal, and now Bears stadium. It seems pretty obvious the guy is more interested in a role like NFL commissioner than he is Chicago Bears savior

I like how we think the guy (Warren) who has had like 3 jobs in five years is somehow loyal or long term focused to anything but himself. He likes big wins to pad his resume. Vikings stadium, Big10 expansion and tv deal, and now Bears stadium. It seems pretty obvious the guy is more interested in a role like NFL commissioner than he is Chicago Bears savior

It’s a selective 11 plays. I’d say a 1/3 were great plays, 1/3 were good, and a 1/3 were bad. And that is just Fields. For every amazing talented play, he has an equally awful play.

My only complaint about the last serious is we didn’t use timeouts. The clock was already stopped with Lions timeouts. We could have sent out a formation, see if we liked a matchup then called a timeout.

Without context the playcalling didn’t bother me. We ran inside zone, option then the pass play. The first two run designed worked for most of the game.

With context what bothers me is our coaches still seem surprised by what Fields does. If Mahomes is an artist Fields is much more robotic. He takes his read’s literally when he makes them. So my issue is with the second down option play. Fields was never going to keep that ball. He saw the wide 9 edge and it was going to be a give to the RB inside. He did it all game.

The NFL has gotten pretty boring to watch. Even last night between the Chiefs and Eagles it was more about miscues and penalties than it was great plays. I think Tom Brady has a point when he says between coaching, player development and the rules the game really isn’t about excellence anymore. Maybe the combination of lack of practice time and the preference for rookie players just led to a situation where teams are mostly young players that don’t know what they are really doing.

It’s an interesting situation for the Bears. If we draft well rounds 1-4 we are likely trying to start 3-4 more rookies next year, on top of a lot guys in starting in years two and three. Generally I think having a young team is a positive but currently the best teams in the NFC are more veteran heavy with the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys.

I think something has to change. The NFL needs to change some rules about salary cap and player salaries or the players need to become more aware about maximizing their overall experience not just their money. Or maybe the NFL just needs to offer far larger incentives to teams that make the playoffs, or win the Super Bowl.

I guess my point is watching Mahomes who may be the greatest QB in NFL history try and throw to MVS, Watson and Rice seems criminal.

My only concern is I think that Maye kid is going to be the consensus number 1 next spring. Williams will end up being a consensus top 4 pick. I don’t think we end up with the one pick unless we also try to tank the rest of the year ourselves. What I think happens we end up with a #3 and like #10 (when we for some reason decide we need to beat teams like AZ and GB for no other reason than showing an improved record). I’m ok w that if we take like MHJ and the best trench player on the board. My big fear is we decide to trade up for a Williams bc we need to move off fields.

Kicker, holder, snapper. Now you have the issue of snapper for punts. But I’m guessing a snapper is prioritized for field goal snapping not punt snapping and you could teach a back up center to punt snap. But you could also de-emphasize punting by being more aggressive across four downs. Look at the eagles. They have basically manufactured a way with the tush push to get two yards a pop. If it’s 3rd and 6 now they can take 4 yards. And line up and tush push for 2 yards. That sounds ridiculous but the stats are there they average something like 25% more series than the next NFL team bc they have figured out a tush push.

What center did you want to trade for? No other team is trading their starting center.

It’s crazy if somehow we pull out a win. We could be a 8-11 place NFC team.

I’d make an argument these defenses work bc there really isn’t any innovation in the NFL. It’s called a copycat league. But it should probably be called don’t take risks, conform to the status quo league. GMs and coaches simply refuse to do anything drastically different than their peers bc they don’t ever want to be fired. So it’s copy what works (ironically until you get fired) It’s apparent in the way teams handle two-point conversions. It’s 2023 and there still isn’t a team willing to go for every time. Maybe the math doesn’t support 2 point conversions, maybe it’s good to get your kicker live practice. But if you abandoned the field goal game you’d free up three roster spots (which you could argue could be used for developmental QBs).

It’s the same with the run game. There isn’t a rule that says you can’t draft all linemen and tight ends and put them at receiver and just try to power run. But it never happens. It’s sounds stupid. But what if instead of receivers you had Kmet, Kelce and Kittle.

There is a reason guys like Romo or Eli Manning can be on a broadcast and consistently call out the play. It’s because nothing has changed. The whole league uses some version of Shanahan, west coast, rpo, play action offense and has been for a decade.

We play the Lions, Vikings, Lions, Browns. Maybe we are favored vs the Vikings. But I think it’s likely we are probably a 4-10 team. If that happens we just need to tank against the Cards, Falcons and Packers. And I hate the idea of tanking to the Packers. But screwing them out of a hire draft pick is a better FU than winning a meaningless week 17 game.

Kirk Herbstreit and Al Michaels have such an awkward dynamic. Both are legendary announcers but I don’t think they work together. Al is cynical and sarcastic. Kirk is classy and optimistic. It’s like they paired Waldorf the old muppet with Kermit. It feels like at any moment Michaels is going to tell Kirk no one cares about his football knowledge. And Kirk is going to tell Al to stop being a snarky A-hole.

Things I liked: We won. Santos hitting a 54 yarder. Kmet, Mooney. Prime Vision.

Things I didn’t like: Jenkins getting owned. Our blitzes didn’t work. Brisker getting juked by a QB. Giving up first down on 1st and 30. Refs giving Moore 3 phantom penalties.

Things I really didn’t like: Vegas covering a .5 point on a night the refs gave out 12 penalties. The QB play. I don’t think I’ve seen so many throws into the ground in an NFL game. Each QB must have had 10 uncatchable balls.