DVOA means efficiency per play and DYAR is total volume. So by football outsiders metrics, Stroud is the 2nd best performing qb this year on a play by play basis and the most valuable overall.
His DYAR is 1031. on pace for 1964 DYAR over this season.
His DVOA is 36.8%, meaning he is 36.8% above a league average QB.
To give context to how impressive this is, I will list a few QB seasons with similar metrics.
Aaron Rodgers in 2020 in his 48 TD 5 INT season had a 33.7% DVOA and 1649 DVOA. Granted this was a 16 game season.
Mahomes 50 TD season was 39.9% DVOA and 2031 DYAR.
So Stroud is playing at a similar level to 2 MVP, HOF QBs best seasons
If you are skeptical about these advanced metrics, Stroud also grades well in traditional ones.
He is 3rd in ANY/A (and the 2 ahead of him have much better offensive rosters), 6th in passer rating and 13th in pass success rate.
He should be in serious MVP consideration, especially with the defenses he has faced so far.
Link to new Football Outsiders
Image of DVOA stats
I’m really waiting to see how he does against the Browns defense. If he can put up 300+ yards and a couple TDs with no interceptions then everybody should be all in on his MVP candidacy. That’s the clear best defense in the league.
Bobby Slowick, YOU are the new head coach of the Los Angeles Justin Herberts!
No
i was higher than most on the texans this year but thought the ceiling was going to be 7-8 wins; i don’t think anyone wants to run into that team
Can everyone just STFU and not jinx this please? It doesn’t take much to derail this train. Trust me we all thought this when Watson was lighting it up his rookie year, not MVP talk but long gazes into the future of what he could be. Look how that turned out. Jinx.
What do you mean? He’s literally guaranteed to be the best QB this year. I’d even go as far as to say there’s absolutely nothing that can stop CJ Stroud from being the best QB of all time.
Superstitious idiot go outside
Herbert is really undervalued by betting markets right now relative to his stats.
If the Chargers can rattle off a few wins in a row Herbert will be back in the MVP race, even from a distance.
The last time someone won MVP when their team didn’t even win their division was 2012 Adrian Peterson when he ran for 2100 yards. Herbert doesn’t have a chance unless he throws 30 TDs his last 8 games.
Every other post on this sub is (team/player) leads the league in (stat I’ve never heard of).
Just be glad theyre not forcing Kenny Pickett stats on us
There are definitely scenarios where he can win MVP and have arguably the most impressive rookie season ever. Texans fans have so much to look forward to.
Also I haven’t heard a lot but how has Anderson looked on the defensive side?
Anderson is creating pressures and opportunities for others to get sacks. It’s not showing up on the stat sheet, but he it schemed against, double/triple teamed all the time. That’s partially because the Texans don’t really have anybody else on the D-line that opposing coordinators would have to focus on. We notice him in games usually when he throws the right tackle into the QB’s lap.
Rookie D-ends usually make a big step in year 2, and the Texans should get even more help on the line wether through the draft or free agency, and you should hear more from him on sport center (or wherever) then.
Everyone is happy we have him, but we will see if he is fully worth what we gave up to go get him, but so far so good. On that note, with news today that Deshaun is having season ending surgery, it’s looking more and more like the Browns Rd1 (Texans still have) will be lower than the Texan’s (the one they traded).
I honestly want him to do it. Because not only would it be good for him to be that great, it’d be good for the Texans as a byproduct.
And further… he’d be the very second to win MVP and ROTY in the history of the NFL.
Which might, MIGHT I say, mean he could be one of the GOATS.
And the Texans would have him.
Houston would have him.
Man I can only dream so hard…
2 more wins and performances like against Tampa and he’s in the lead.
If performance maintains and the Texans get 10 wins he’s a strong candidate.
There hasn’t been an MVP in the last 20+ years that didn’t win 11 games, and that’s when they only played 16.
I like Burrow, but I don’t get how he has like the 4th best MVP odds while Stroud is considered a fringe candidate at best. Stroud has been much more impressive, and not just “for a rookie”.
Stroud wont be winning rookie mvp and league mvp in the same season. It’s happened once and that in 1957 when Jim Brown won both pre AFL NFL merger.
I mean, it’s not happening cause he’s on pace for 28tds and his teams unlikely to win more than 10 games or their division and are currently the 7th seed.
Unless they go 7-1 and he plays far better than he already has it’s not happening. Especially if one of Mahomes/Hurts/Goff/Purdy get their team to 14-15 wins
These aren’t the metrics MVP is given out on. Wins, traditional efficiency stats, and volume. Wins, unfortunately for Stroud, are a huge part of the equation. Houston needs to not lose another game for Stroud to win, or they need to not lose more than 1 more and have some other stuff go their way. If Houston somehow gets the 1 seed, he’s the unanimous winner. If they get the 2, he’s definitely getting votes, possibly enough to win. Anything less, he’s out.
These aren’t the metrics MVP is given out on. Wins, traditional efficiency stats, and volume. Wins, unfortunately for Stroud, are a huge part of the equation.
I really don’t think that’s completely true. Here’s the last ten MVPs.
Year MVP Wins Rank EPA Rank QB Rating Rank Yardage Rank 2022 Mahomes t1st 1st 2nd 1st 2021 Rodgers t1st 1st 1st 10th 2020 Rodgers t2nd 1st 1st 7th 2019 Jackson t1st 1st 3rd 22nd^1 2018 Mahomes t3rd 2nd 2nd 2nd^2 2017 Brady 1st 1st 3rd 1st 2016 Ryan t3rd 1st 1st 2nd 2015 Newton 1st 9th t7th 16th^3 2014 Rodgers t1st 1st 2nd 7th 2013 Manning 1st 1st 2nd 1st Year Name Wins EPA Rate Yard -
Jackson’s significant rushing value is not accounted for in passer rating or yardage. Should be considered 1st outright in wins, since he sat out an easy victory with the #1 seed locked up.
-
Mahomes was a narrow second to Brees in both EPA and rating, however Brees missed a game and had much lower volume (>5000 yards vs <4000 yards).
-
Newton’s significant rushing value is not accounted for in passer rating or yardage.
All of these ranks are based on players who started at least 9 games. The 2013 cutoff gave me a round decade and avoided having to deal with RB-as-MVP in the form of Peterson '12. Before 2012 I don’t have EPA handy.
It’s pretty clear at a glance that volume isn’t actually that big a deal to voters.
“Advanced” and “Traditional” efficiency stats tend toward agreement, but when they disagree the “Advanced” EPA is a better predictor of the MVP. To be fair to “traditional” efficiency, Manning '13, Jackson '19, and Mahomes '22 were behind only players who missed significant time. The two significant disagreements are:
- 2014: Rating prefers Romo to Rodgers.
- 2017: Rating prefers either Alex Smith or Brees to Brady.
The case against wins is made most strongly by Ryan winning over four players with at least as many wins and a better record (Brady, Dak, Alex Smith, and Derek Carr) in '16. Mahomes '18 and Rodgers '20 both failed to lead the league in wins but did secure the #1 seed in their conference. The case for wins is made best by Newton '15; I suspect the rather odd Cam Newton MVP award had more to do with voters over-valuing his rushing ability than Carolina’s 15-1 record, but I could easily be wrong.
Overall, being really good at quarterbacking is the best way to win MVP. It’s also the best way to win lots of games and get high ranks in both old and new efficiency stats, so it’s hard to say definitively which of those the voters are actually pinging on; those three measures usually agree. My personal guess is that EPA is the best proxy for what they are thinking; if Stroud finishes up at the top of the efficiency boards but someone else, say Mahomes, has four or so more wins the MVP race might give us a very interesting data point this year.
-
I said the same thing
My conclusion from this chart is that Purdy has a strong chance to be MVP if we get the 1 seed. His advanced stats are hold up when compared with previous MVP seasons and the formula for the award has traditionally been QB with great stats with a top seed.
Criteria 1 is being fulfilled…criteria 2 is in the balance
just wait until he regresses to the mean…