These aren’t the metrics MVP is given out on. Wins, traditional efficiency stats, and volume. Wins, unfortunately for Stroud, are a huge part of the equation.
I really don’t think that’s completely true. Here’s the last ten MVPs.
Year
MVP
Wins Rank
EPA Rank
QB Rating Rank
Yardage Rank
2022
Mahomes
t1st
1st
2nd
1st
2021
Rodgers
t1st
1st
1st
10th
2020
Rodgers
t2nd
1st
1st
7th
2019
Jackson
t1st
1st
3rd
22nd^1
2018
Mahomes
t3rd
2nd
2nd
2nd^2
2017
Brady
1st
1st
3rd
1st
2016
Ryan
t3rd
1st
1st
2nd
2015
Newton
1st
9th
t7th
16th^3
2014
Rodgers
t1st
1st
2nd
7th
2013
Manning
1st
1st
2nd
1st
Year
Name
Wins
EPA
Rate
Yard
Jackson’s significant rushing value is not accounted for in passer rating or yardage. Should be considered 1st outright in wins, since he sat out an easy victory with the #1 seed locked up.
Mahomes was a narrow second to Brees in both EPA and rating, however Brees missed a game and had much lower volume (>5000 yards vs <4000 yards).
Newton’s significant rushing value is not accounted for in passer rating or yardage.
All of these ranks are based on players who started at least 9 games. The 2013 cutoff gave me a round decade and avoided having to deal with RB-as-MVP in the form of Peterson '12. Before 2012 I don’t have EPA handy.
It’s pretty clear at a glance that volume isn’t actually that big a deal to voters.
“Advanced” and “Traditional” efficiency stats tend toward agreement, but when they disagree the “Advanced” EPA is a better predictor of the MVP. To be fair to “traditional” efficiency, Manning '13, Jackson '19, and Mahomes '22 were behind only players who missed significant time. The two significant disagreements are:
2014: Rating prefers Romo to Rodgers.
2017: Rating prefers either Alex Smith or Brees to Brady.
The case against wins is made most strongly by Ryan winning over four players with at least as many wins and a better record (Brady, Dak, Alex Smith, and Derek Carr) in '16. Mahomes '18 and Rodgers '20 both failed to lead the league in wins but did secure the #1 seed in their conference. The case for wins is made best by Newton '15; I suspect the rather odd Cam Newton MVP award had more to do with voters over-valuing his rushing ability than Carolina’s 15-1 record, but I could easily be wrong.
Overall, being really good at quarterbacking is the best way to win MVP. It’s also the best way to win lots of games and get high ranks in both old and new efficiency stats, so it’s hard to say definitively which of those the voters are actually pinging on; those three measures usually agree. My personal guess is that EPA is the best proxy for what they are thinking; if Stroud finishes up at the top of the efficiency boards but someone else, say Mahomes, has four or so more wins the MVP race might give us a very interesting data point this year.
I really don’t think that’s completely true. Here’s the last ten MVPs.
Jackson’s significant rushing value is not accounted for in passer rating or yardage. Should be considered 1st outright in wins, since he sat out an easy victory with the #1 seed locked up.
Mahomes was a narrow second to Brees in both EPA and rating, however Brees missed a game and had much lower volume (>5000 yards vs <4000 yards).
Newton’s significant rushing value is not accounted for in passer rating or yardage.
All of these ranks are based on players who started at least 9 games. The 2013 cutoff gave me a round decade and avoided having to deal with RB-as-MVP in the form of Peterson '12. Before 2012 I don’t have EPA handy.
It’s pretty clear at a glance that volume isn’t actually that big a deal to voters.
“Advanced” and “Traditional” efficiency stats tend toward agreement, but when they disagree the “Advanced” EPA is a better predictor of the MVP. To be fair to “traditional” efficiency, Manning '13, Jackson '19, and Mahomes '22 were behind only players who missed significant time. The two significant disagreements are:
The case against wins is made most strongly by Ryan winning over four players with at least as many wins and a better record (Brady, Dak, Alex Smith, and Derek Carr) in '16. Mahomes '18 and Rodgers '20 both failed to lead the league in wins but did secure the #1 seed in their conference. The case for wins is made best by Newton '15; I suspect the rather odd Cam Newton MVP award had more to do with voters over-valuing his rushing ability than Carolina’s 15-1 record, but I could easily be wrong.
Overall, being really good at quarterbacking is the best way to win MVP. It’s also the best way to win lots of games and get high ranks in both old and new efficiency stats, so it’s hard to say definitively which of those the voters are actually pinging on; those three measures usually agree. My personal guess is that EPA is the best proxy for what they are thinking; if Stroud finishes up at the top of the efficiency boards but someone else, say Mahomes, has four or so more wins the MVP race might give us a very interesting data point this year.