These aren’t the metrics MVP is given out on. Wins, traditional efficiency stats, and volume. Wins, unfortunately for Stroud, are a huge part of the equation. Houston needs to not lose another game for Stroud to win, or they need to not lose more than 1 more and have some other stuff go their way. If Houston somehow gets the 1 seed, he’s the unanimous winner. If they get the 2, he’s definitely getting votes, possibly enough to win. Anything less, he’s out.
What people are really talking about when looking at that stat is how often can an offense keep the drive alive for another set of downs.
By this logic, just count every first down gained regardless of what down it was before.
4th downs tend to be attempted either in desperation or in high probability to convert situations. Both cases skew the numbers in a misleading way. 4th down conversion attempts also offer a relatively low sample size. You shouldn’t get a ton of praise for converting that 4th and 1 or 2. Every team should be able to very consistently gain 2 yards. And failing to convert 4th and long in the final 2 minutes when you’re losing shouldn’t be held against you.
Barring an end of half FG attempt, teams go for it on 3rd down 100% of the time. For obvious reason. And for 99% of the game, teams operate as if they have 3 downs to gain 10 yards, not 4. If you consistently convert 3rd downs because you consistently have a shorter way to go, that is a very good sign for your offense. If you are constantly facing 3rd and longs, and struggle converting because of it, that is a very bad sign for the offense.
Tldr, 3rd downs, thanks to overall strategy/situation as well as sample size are much more indicative of a good offense than 4th downs.
Bill is still the best HC in the NFL imo. Unfortunately, he has one of the worst GMs(himself) in the NFL providing him with subpar talent. Brady covered for this on offense, HC Bill covered for this on defense, and combined, they made for the GOAT dynasty.
Brady got the last laugh by going to a stacked, well coached team and winning another Ring, while Bill takes all the heat for not winning with a shit team. But let Bill have his pick of teams in the NFL to go coach next year, and I’d be willing to bet he makes it to the Super Bowl in this unprovable hypothetical. The Patriots play better than they should on paper, and every Bill coached team will, but that only goes so far. Until he steps down as GM, or hits on the next Tom Brady, Bill is going to continue to struggle to put up wins.
He did do it for Parcells though…he also already leaves most GM duties to his sone Stephen and Will McClay. And I don’t think he will give Bill power over those two, nor should he. McClay has a great draft record, and Stephen has been good with contracts. And Bill has not been good at drafting. Bill is the GOAT HC, but he’s mostly a mediocre GM.