Seeing mixed reports about the head of wagner rolling into Rostov, Russia. All kinds of other rumors swirling around. Anyone have any good info, or good sources to follow?
This is the inevitible result of nations wholly relying on mercenary groups to fight their wars. As major powers, not just Russia, continue to rely on privatized militaries these militaries are going to become emboldened and realize how much power they have over their capitalist financiers.
The other day I was listening to an old episode of The Deprogram where they talked about this. Surreal to see it actually happening now.
Yes, and furthermore: this just brings up the larger point that you cannot fight imperialism solely on the basis of the national bourgeoisie. They are weak and disunited, and many times will stab you in the back. One hopes the Russian government can learn from this episode, and move (as Chavez did) toward a stronger state with more socialistic policies.
nations should stop tolerating the laundering of responsibility. a country using individuals or private companies to project its power / do its violence etc. must be held culpable, otherwise it is too easy to get away with stuff
we should stop acting like hiring mercs is a loophole
Which episode?
I couldn’t tell you the specific episode, sorry. I’ve been going on a binge lately while commuting to work so I’ve listened to a lot. Likely a 2022 one.
Basically they were remarking on how, even though past wars have been fought with private contractors, the Russia-Ukraine War is the first major war where one party has been so reliant on one mercenary company and that in the future these mercenary groups may end up trying to seize political power for themselves.
Which is exactly what’s happening.
once again Metal Gear Solid correctly predicted something lol
I have no fucking idea and I feel like that might be intentional. We’re told this bizarre narative that Wagner is committing a coup and magically just bulldozed the entire Russian Military to get to Moscow, but the only real source of this info are Pro-Ukraine accounts who lie about everything.
For the record, Russian state media is also calling this a coup attempt.
https://www.rt.com/russia/578601-recap-putin-address-wagner-coup/
Putin has issued an emergency statement denouncing Prigozjin as a traitor and that his drive on Moscow would be stopped.
News blackout currently underway as of the night of the 23rd. Don’t trust anything being said at the moment as it’s all speculation and rumor. Even from official sources a lot of the information in a breaking story is going to be wrong, exaggerated, or confusing.
I’m going to check with Russian sources when I wake up, but currently there is no information coming out of the area or about Wagner.
Also the videos showing Wagners “coup” in Rostov are a bit funny. If they are what they claim to be, Wagners force appears to be 2 tanks (one modern and one very obsolete tank by the look of things), 1 IFV, 2 armored Humvee style cars, 1 military transport truck, and then about 5-10 assorted civilian vehicles.
Assuming they’re all full to the brim with troops and supplies, that’s enough men and machines for what? An under-strength Company of troops? The NYPD could handle that force.
NYPD’s budget is larger than the military budget of many small countries (for eg. DPRK) lol
the NYPD pays way way way more for that gear though, there’s no way they have more equipment than the DPRK’s army
[New York] City officials say that the NYPD will acquire two robot dogs for a total of $750,000, according to the NYT, and that they will only be used during life-threatening situations, such as bomb threats.
Yeah checks out
Literally Skynet shit good lord
Robot dogs are nothing. They are currently developing AI to try and make the US Reaper and Predator drones autonomous and be able to operate without a pilot.
Gotta stock up on EMP’s
I can see that going very wrong very quickly. If they train the AI on existing US data and let them loose at home, they’ll take out half of Washington.
fortunately, the nypd lacks equipment such as tanks, missiles, and artillery. spending isn’t everything; what they spend it on is everything.
Wrong actually, the NYPD uses IFV’s and APC’s purchased from the military. They also have a store if Stinger missiles they purchased after 9/11.
During the last Marvel(?) film that I watched, I thought, ‘This is daft as shit. As if there are tanks just sat around in cities waiting for villains to turn up.’ Turns out, maybe the film was truer to life than I thought.
Prigozjin is leading his pack of avengers and will go on a heckin epic fighting tour all the way to the Kremlin. I heard Tom Holland, Chris Evans and a Marvel film crew were there as well.
No no no, he is doing a Harry Star Wars Potter! They will use the heckin force to overthrow the evil bad Putler Voldemort emperor, and establish democracy like the good guys did!
Comment I saw on another site: “Prigozhin seems determined to go down as the cheap knock-off version of Stenka Razin”
Hegel remarks somewhere that all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.
From what I know, all the Wagner mercs and other volunteer groups were said to sign a contract with Russian MoD, so there was a plan to nationalize them. Prigozhin, of course, didn’t want to lose his PMC (and sweet sweet money), so he made a strange fake video (and it was so stupid that I and many other people really thought it was some kind of distraction from something) about russian army bombing one of the Wagner camps, and used this as a justification for his coup attempt.
Hard to say. Given this guy has apparently lied before and started up a whole drama about not getting ammo just to fool the west/Ukrainians into continuing to attack his positions and get destroyed I wouldn’t rule out this is an elaborate ruse to bait the Ukrainians into charging Russian positions thinking this is their best time. Basically an attempt to further weaken their forces and shorten the conflict by drawing out reserves.
That said, could be real too I guess but it seems more likely it’s trying to bait the Ukrainians as he’s done before.
Well some parts of Wagner apparently tried the dumbest semi-coup against the MoD. Seems like this was known in advance, because some videos, etc by the RAF were spread immediately. Western media reacted so fast, it looks kinda sus too, especially factoring in that Navalny called on the Russian military to join Wagner.
Also Putin being the revisionist he is dared to compare this to February 1917.
dared to compare this to February 1917.
More like september 1917 (august old style)
Navalny called on the Russian military to join Wagner.
Anything about Navalny supporting the operation in Ukraine, joining Russian army or PMC Wagner was a joke to mock Navalny and liberals. Nothing of this kind actually happened.
Putin being the revisionist he is dared to compare this to February 1917
To the surprise of no-one.
Navalny called on the Russian military to join Wagner
For real? I’ve not heard about this, where’d you see it?
For real? I’ve not heard about this, where’d you see it?
Was tweeted by a news site, but I looked it up and can’t find the tweet anymore, so might’ve been bs and they took it down again.
For real? I’ve not heard about this, where’d you see it?
I saw it on the one tg channel that also posted about Yanucovich becoming the head on provisional government of Russia or Lukashenko thinking about nuclear strike on Wagner, so it’s just a joke lmao
The whole thing is just a bit too odd, we will have to wait for the dust to settle
Dispose of a troublesome mercenary leader with this one simple trick: 10 million dollars and full amnesty to all Wagner mercenaries that dispose of him.
“Civil war” resolved in 10 minutes, tops.
I heard that some Wagner mercs are already laying down their arms and asking to be shipped back to their old positions on the front; they are saying Prigozhin “misled” them, that it wasn’t immediately clear he was trying to start a coup, etc. They may or may not be telling the truth here. But the Russian government is apparently offering blanket amnesty to all Wagner fighters who surrender, on the rationale that they were “betrayed” by their own leader. (Source: Hindustan Times, which is quite pro-Russian, but also not the most serious news outlet in the world, so take whatever they say with a couple grains of salt).
Prigozhin has always been, at best, a nut. One can’t doubt his bravery, but one questions his brains, and certainly now his loyalty. He’s had, up until now, a certain following in the west, simply because he’s such a colorful figure – like Igor Strelkov way back at the begining of the conflict; though Russell Bentley, who I tend to trust on these things, was critical of Strelkov early on. The whole stunt with dead servicemen probably should have convinced the Russian government that Prigozhin was not well, or at rate simply not reliable; that he has been allowed to remain at the front for so long is very odd.
I think this mostly sums it up:
There’s already a Wikipedia page???
I recommend waiting a day for all the rumors and other BS to filter themselves out.
Yeah, a bit hard to tell what’s actually going on with that. Things will probably clear up within a day or two. Does appear that it is serious given Putin’s address.
True. Mostly, though, I just want my mind to pass the “WTF” phase first before I start processing the event.
Like…I know Prigozhin is nuts, but…WTF?
The fact that he was allowed to operate as long as he did is the real failure in my opinion. He should’ve never been allowed to go to the front lines and build himself up the way he did, and once he started making unhinged statements that should’ve been the end of it months ago. It’s absolutely surreal that they let it get this far.
As others have said, we need to wait.
The presence of “Wagner PMC” troops at the Rostov headquarters of the Southern Military Command is no more than several dozen people, maybe 50 in all. The tank and the two APCs that were previously positioned outside the building have been parked.
That is what some TG channel said, and there was some video with civillians next to some soldiers. Still, nothing official.
do you remember which TG channel it was?
Yes, for this and all the comments in the megathread I’ve used Slavyangrad. All of the things they reported were quite factual, they did not hurry up to conclusions and were pretty straightforward. I recommend them quite a lot to follow this event.
yeah that channel seems good so far. thanks for introducing it to me
For stuff like there are telegram channels like intelslava but I am not sure how reliable they are. It is best for the dust to settle down a little bit after which it will be easier for reality to make itself clearer. Following these events closely is also anxiety inducing and confusing since a lot of people say a lot of different things and it is impossible to verify.
To risky. That’s a breeding ground for misinformation, and once rumors start flying it’s next to impossible to stop. Can’t discount potential interference from intelligence agencies as well.
Best thing to do is wait.
The only place for a mercenary is prison. We are now learning why this is the case.
a for-profit prison?
Ka-52 “Alligator” diverted the anti-aircraft missile of Wagner combat vehicle over Voronezh
Several km long column of Chechens heading to Rostov
And thus the most obvious contradiction in the world resolves itself. This is a horrible hit to the perception of Russiain the world. They were able portray an imagine of stability and calm to their partners, investors, population and the economy at large up until now. That just literally blew up
They should end the war. What we’ve been seeing now was Russia trying to deplete the West’s reserves, which is okay, but the longer you prolong a conflict the more probably it is to backfire. Ram full force and end this.
I don’t think Russia has that option. If Russia doesn’t totally win the Ukraine conflict, they’ll be fully torn apart and balkanized.
The west wants their resources, and doesn’t want any opposition.
Read my reply, maybe I explained myself poorly.
Ah, that makes sense!
torn apart? how so?
Idk I feel like “balkanize” is pretty clear.
with a physical invasion? russia still has nukes.
And if Russia lost and Putin massively lost popularity because of it? If the U$ could get another Yeltsin type in there, it’s not too far fetched to think they’d try to fix what they missed in the 90’s.
And then what? Abandon Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea?
Ukraine has already said that they are not willing to negotiate until they have their territory back, so good luck “ending the war”? How would they even accomplish that on the dime? Nuclear blanket on Ukraine?
I don’t mean ending the war like that, what I meant is mobilising more soldiers, more airstrikes, etc. I just think Russia has been playing not as strongly as they can to deplete the West’s arsenal, which I think makes sense it was a good move, but now I would rather see it unfold in a faster manner. Maybe I don’t have as much intel on Russia’s capabilities and all of that and it’s not feasible, it’s just what I’d like to see.
Thank you, that makes a lot more sense.
Sadly I do not think that’s possible. It might not be a popular thought here, but I believe this might be the extent of the Russian army, Air Force, and navy capabilities.
They have been doing a good job at grinding down NATO assets, but at a large loss to themselves in an unsustainable manner, and they seem unable to muster any actual offensive strength. Seeing as how the lines have been basically static for the past year and half; with significant losses on the Russian side (failed drive on Kiev, and the loss of Kherson and Kharkov just to name a few).
While grind NATO in a war of attrition might be the best thing Russia can do, at the same time Sun Tzu’s message that the worst war is a long war still rings true. With a long war (even if you’re winning) you will still encounter war weariness from the population whose support will slowly diminish, you will face irreplaceable losses in men, machine, and fuel, and your troops will become battle fatigued and lose interest in the conflict.
It might not be a popular thought here, but I believe this might be the extent of the Russian army, Air Force, and navy capabilities.
I think it’s more the Russian government realizing that, in order to prosecute this war as it probably should be prosecuted, they would need to take the irrecovable final step: de facto abandonment of the post-1991 political order and re-Sovietization of the Russian economy. This, we know, is something that they’re extremely reluctant to do. Over the past twenty years, they’ve made certain steps in this direction, but only when absolutely compelled by circumstances, and when the alternative is literal destruction of Russia. Some of this reluctance stems from liberal ideology, which still has a very strong hold in most countries; some of it is probably from a mass of mid-level bureaucrats and people in the security services (Putin’s original base of support) who are genuinely patriotic, but also shell-shocked from the 90s, and who thus have an irrational but completely understandable fear of anything which will, in the common phrase, “rock the boat.” But it all adds up to a government which feels that the status quo is extremely fragile, and hence values stability above almost anything else; which is to say that they are “conservative” in the only real meaning of the term.
Either Shoigu or Lavrov is supposed to have said last year that when this conflict ends, “we will have the Soviet Union back.” There’s a truth to that, because Russia right now is like a bullied person, or a battered woman, under the boot of that thug which is the collective west; the person under the boot has been able to dictate more and more terms of late, but ultimate emancipation still means throwing off the bully, climbing to one’s feet, and socking him hard in the jaw. When that step is taken, the bullied person becomes finally himself again, and Russia again becomes the USSR, by force of material reality and the natural progression of the real modes of production; but it is a risky step, and the politicians in Moscow will not take it unless forced.
