By my count, of the 37 QBs taken in Round 1 since 2011, only 8 have been what you can call a success for the team that drafted them, and only 1 sort of lead their team to a Super Bowl win (Wentz, but we all know that Nick Foles did that). That’s a 21.6% rate of success. This is why looking for “generational talent” in the first round is a fool’s errand. And when applied to this franchise that has shown very little ability to identify and develop QB talent in the draft, it’s absolutely moronic.

Anyway, here’s my list and Hit/Miss count. Note that there are more “hits” in recent classes b/c we don’t know how they’ll turn out (Burrow who I love, has 2 season ending injuries, Kyler Murray, one, etc.). I think it’s too soon to say anything about 2022 class.

2021

Trevor Lawrence – Hit (probably) (1)

Zach Wilson – Miss

Justin Fields – Miss (probably)

Trey Lance – Miss

Mac Jones - Miss

2020

Joe Burrow – Hit (probably) (2)

Tua Tagovailoa – Hit (probably) (3)

Justin Herbert – Miss (probably)

Jordan Love – Miss (probably)

2019

Kyler Murray – Hit (maybe, more like TBD) (4)

Daniel Jones – Miss

Dwayne Haskins - Miss

2018

Baker Mayfield – Miss

Sam Darnold – Miss

Josh Allen – Hit (5)

Josh Rosen – Miss

Lamar Jackson – Hit (6)

2017

Mitchell Trunbisky – Miss (lol)

Patrick Mahomes – Hit

Deshaun Watson - Miss

2016

Jared Goff – Miss

Carson Wentz – Miss

Paxton Lynch – Miss

2015

Jameis Winston – Miss

Marcus Mariota - Miss

2014

Blake Bortles – Miss

Johnny Manziel – Miss

Teddy Bridgewater - Miss

2013

EJ Manuel – Miss

2012

Andrew Luck – Hit (7)

RGIII – Miss

Ryan Tannehill – Miss

Brandon Weeden – Miss

2011

Cam Newton – Hit (8)

Jake Locker – Miss

Blain Gabbert – Miss

Christian Ponder – Miss

​

  • AndyThatSaysNi@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    Tannehill was starting QB quality for many years and led the Titans through many playoff runs. He’s just aging out of the league now, but was a hit.

    Goff as a miss is laughable both for his time in the Rams and currently with the Lions.

    Watson is interesting. If the off-the-field stuff doesn’t happen, I assume we’re still calling him a hit. Maybe another TBD like Murray?

    Herbert has done more than enough to earn a hit rating, though I can understand the skepticism when looking at the Chargers overall being a perennial bubble team.

    That’s already up to 32.4% with those 4 names being appropriately rated, let alone odds increasing the higher a pick is made. Pretty decent considering our current QB you have rated as “Miss (Probably)”. Seems like an upgrade in odds at least of decent QB play.