By my count, of the 37 QBs taken in Round 1 since 2011, only 8 have been what you can call a success for the team that drafted them, and only 1 sort of lead their team to a Super Bowl win (Wentz, but we all know that Nick Foles did that). That’s a 21.6% rate of success. This is why looking for “generational talent” in the first round is a fool’s errand. And when applied to this franchise that has shown very little ability to identify and develop QB talent in the draft, it’s absolutely moronic.

Anyway, here’s my list and Hit/Miss count. Note that there are more “hits” in recent classes b/c we don’t know how they’ll turn out (Burrow who I love, has 2 season ending injuries, Kyler Murray, one, etc.). I think it’s too soon to say anything about 2022 class.

2021

Trevor Lawrence – Hit (probably) (1)

Zach Wilson – Miss

Justin Fields – Miss (probably)

Trey Lance – Miss

Mac Jones - Miss

2020

Joe Burrow – Hit (probably) (2)

Tua Tagovailoa – Hit (probably) (3)

Justin Herbert – Miss (probably)

Jordan Love – Miss (probably)

2019

Kyler Murray – Hit (maybe, more like TBD) (4)

Daniel Jones – Miss

Dwayne Haskins - Miss

2018

Baker Mayfield – Miss

Sam Darnold – Miss

Josh Allen – Hit (5)

Josh Rosen – Miss

Lamar Jackson – Hit (6)

2017

Mitchell Trunbisky – Miss (lol)

Patrick Mahomes – Hit

Deshaun Watson - Miss

2016

Jared Goff – Miss

Carson Wentz – Miss

Paxton Lynch – Miss

2015

Jameis Winston – Miss

Marcus Mariota - Miss

2014

Blake Bortles – Miss

Johnny Manziel – Miss

Teddy Bridgewater - Miss

2013

EJ Manuel – Miss

2012

Andrew Luck – Hit (7)

RGIII – Miss

Ryan Tannehill – Miss

Brandon Weeden – Miss

2011

Cam Newton – Hit (8)

Jake Locker – Miss

Blain Gabbert – Miss

Christian Ponder – Miss

​

  • AndyThatSaysNi@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Tannehill was starting QB quality for many years and led the Titans through many playoff runs. He’s just aging out of the league now, but was a hit.

    Goff as a miss is laughable both for his time in the Rams and currently with the Lions.

    Watson is interesting. If the off-the-field stuff doesn’t happen, I assume we’re still calling him a hit. Maybe another TBD like Murray?

    Herbert has done more than enough to earn a hit rating, though I can understand the skepticism when looking at the Chargers overall being a perennial bubble team.

    That’s already up to 32.4% with those 4 names being appropriately rated, let alone odds increasing the higher a pick is made. Pretty decent considering our current QB you have rated as “Miss (Probably)”. Seems like an upgrade in odds at least of decent QB play.