Considering what CJ Stroud has been doing, I’m interested in seeing how teams handle drafting a QB high from here on out. Over the last 20 years or so, I think we’ve seen less and less patience when it comes to rookie QBs. There used to be a time where a guy could get drafted and would essentially be a clipboard holder his first 2-3 years if the guy ahead of him was producing at at least a Cincy Andy Dalton level. We’ve seen a lot more get thrown out to the fire early and they get a lot less leeway now than they did when I first started watching football 20 something years ago.
Still tho, a lot of fans still like to justify why their teams young QB is underperforming and usually point to factors that are out of their control (roster, coaching staff, front office, lack of experience)
And this guy CJ Stroud comes into the league with a franchise in perhaps its darkest days with a rookie head coach to boot, no notable weapons at the start of the season and he’s got them in the playoff hunt and hasn’t only been playing well for a rookie but he has been one of the best performing QBs in the league this season.
I’m already seeing a lot of rumblings on social media in regards to other young QBs that have yet to play like CJ has and some guys that had supporters before this season have lost a lot of them. It’s just hard to keep justifying poor play with external excuses when this guy isn’t in an ideal situation at all and making it happen.
It’s a cyclical thing I guess. Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, RG3, Justin Herbert (once he began starting) were all recent examples of guys who had exceptional rookie seasons.
Then you had a few start slowly, like Lawrence, Josh Allen, Goff (maybe not the best example, he was so up and down), etc. who took a while to hit their stride.
I think the lesson here isn’t that they’re going to have less time to prove themselves, it’s that regardless of how quickly they get it (or don’t), you need to be patient.
I generally think a first year is a learning year, the second year is going to give you a relative idea of a prospect’s ceiling and floor, and by the end of the third year he’s either getting it or he’s not. There are of course exceptions to this, but that’s generally how I’ve seen it.
Kyler Murray fell into your description. First year he was decent, set some rookie records. Second year he was straight fire, he did some amazing things (hail Murray, huge rushing yards) and then the third year he lead his team to a playoff game. But then he regressed a bit the year later, although the whole team fell apart that year, and then he was injured. Gotta judge him again next season.