Yeah, we know Bill Parcells said “You are what your record says you are.”
But which to teams do you feel are not what their record says they are?
Better than record: Cardinals only because Kyler Murray is back
Worse than record: Steelers whose luck will run out any week now. Right guys? Any week now.
Falcons. We should be like 6-4, or even 7-3. Our HC is a hack who doesn’t know how to use his best players. Instead he runs jet sweeps to TE2 in the red zone.
Buffalo’s defense deserves to probably be 10-0.
Its offense should be 3-7.We Don’t Apologize For Winning #HereWeGoSteelers!
Worse Record The Seahawks can beat bad teams, but they get blown out against good teams.
Better Record Bengals are still an AFC threat despite their record.
I mean yeah we’re worse than our record indicates, the play is just so sloppy but I don’t think I’d say we’ve been blown out by good teams.
We’ve lost three games, one to the rams, McVay is Carroll’s kryptonite so that’s to be expected. Another to the Bengals, and that was a close game, if we actually did something in the red zone the Hawks win that comfortably. Then we got shat on by the Ravens. But so did the Lions, who no one is saying is worse.
we are a made field goal and foster moreau catch away from being 7-3
Panthers, we’re much worse than 1-8
The Steelers and Eagles come to mine for being worse. Philly is probably the most overrated team in the league right now.
The Panthers is the answer for both
Somehow it feels like the Bills are both better and worse than their record
The jets are better than their record imo that defense is lock down they’re winning games with a rag tag offense…let them make the playoffs with rodgers coming back and watch what happens
We can look at Pythagorean expectation, which predicts the expected number of wins based on points scored vs. points allowed at this point in the season. And then teams that are winning more games than they “should” based on points scored vs allowed are “worse than their record”, and conversely teams that are winning fewer games than they should are “better than their record.”
By 9 or 10 games played in the expansion era (since 2002), 62% of teams are within 1 win of their expected wins. About 87% are within 2 wins. This season, interestingly, 100% of teams are within 2 wins of expected, and 85% are within 1 win.
There is 1 team who is 2 wins below expected (better than their record):
- Buffalo Bills. Expected: 7-3. Actual: 5-5.
There are 4 team who are 2 wins above expected (worse than their record):
- Philadelphia Eagles. Expected: 6-3. Actual: 8-1.
- Detroit Lions. Expected: 5-4. Actual: 7-2
- Seattle Seahawks. Expected: 4-5. Actual: 6-3.
- Pittsburgh Steelers. Expected: 4-5. Actual: 6-3.
Now personally I’d argue that no team is really better or worse than their record, because a team that is getting significantly more wins than expected based on points probably has the benefit of skillful players and coaches who can figure out how to keep games close and exploit advantages to squeak out victories (e.g., the Steelers). And teams that are below expected conversely underperform in such situations by habitually making costly errors in close games (Bills). Also, it can be skewed by big blowout wins or losses which in some cases could be isolated “burn the tape” outlier games that don’t really reflect a team’s average performance (Lions and Seahawks vs. Ravens). So make of this what you will.
My biased opinion is the Ravens are better than their record suggests. But we just love falling apart and not closing out games. So maybe we are as good as our record suggests?
Yeah, shouldn’t have lost to the Colts or Browns.
It’s what we love about yinz guys
After 10 games, the Ravens are in the top 5 for trailing the least amount of times in a season. The other 4 teams are 10-0. The Ravens are 7-3. The Ravens have trailed the third least amount of time of any team in history thus far. They are the “best” of the underrated.
I feel the opposite about the Eagles. They somehow almost blow teams away and almost blow the game simultaneously. Every week, there’s a moment in the 4th quarter where it looks like the game could slip away, but so far, only 1 has.
I’m not sure if that makes us good or bad, I just know we’re 8-1 and I’m trying to enjoy it without thinking to much about it.
Broncos
Bengals and Bills
Pats have 5 losses by 1 score, and 2 wins by 1 score. Could be 7 and 3 or 0 and 10.
Bills are better than their record, Steelers are worse. One finds ways to lose games they shouldn’t, the other wins games it shouldn’t.