cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/8494004
Former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig is sounding the alarm about Canada seeking deeper trade ties with China in the face of growing tensions and uncertainty with the U.S., warning the pivot carries significant risks to Canada’s economic security.
Speaking Tuesday at the Future of Business Summit in Ottawa, Kovrig — a longtime China analyst who was arbitrarily detained by Beijing for more than 1,000 days after Canada detained Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou — said Ottawa’s new China strategy is a “risky play” that will not be viewed kindly by Washington and could threaten trade talks.
He pointed to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s criticism last week of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s deal with China, announced early this year, which included importing a limited number of Chinese electric vehicles.
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“The basic problem is that China is not a solution to most of our problems with the U.S.,” Kovrig said at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce-hosted event.
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Kovrig said a key difference between the two countries is that China is currently “in selling mode, not in buying mode,” and is seeking to make international markets reliant on its cheaper exports.
While Canada has only committed to buying up to 49,000 Chinese EVs, Kovrig said Beijing may seek to increase that quota using economic and diplomatic pressure points like it has in the past.
He warned Ottawa not to be driven by “short-term considerations” like consumer demand for less expensive electric vehicles that could lead to “the long-term strategic implications that path dependence can put us on.”
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“If you’re living in a small town and you have just a local Main Street with a hardware store and so on, sure, wouldn’t it be nice to have a Walmart move in and offer you all kinds of cheaper homewares and stuff?” Kovrig said.
“That’s going to be great until … they come in with super low prices and bankrupt all your local shops, and then Main Street looks like a dead zone and all that’s left is Walmart, and then there’s no competition and they can ratchet up the prices. Chinese makers will be able to do the same thing, and it will come with the cost of geopolitical leverage that the state can weaponize.”
Kovrig said the export strategy mirrors how China has already made Canadian sectors like canola, pork and seafood “excessively” dependent on the Chinese marketplace, he added.
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“If China cuts off that trade, the people in those sectors face an economic catastrophe and come running to Ottawa and are effectively trying to lobby our government to do what the Chinese Communist Party wants it to do,” Kovrig said.
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Kovrig — a longtime China analyst who was arbitrarily detained by Beijing for more than 1,000 days after Canada detained Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou — said Ottawa’s new China strategy is a “risky play” that will not be viewed kindly by Washington and could threaten trade talks.
Two things here:
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Don’t quote me, but I have a theory he could be sightly biased against China.
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No trade talks with the US can be trusted. Not when President Gump could change things in any way at any moment for any (or no) reason. Even if Jesus Christ his own self won the next election, lost MAGAts and Other Assorted Stupid People could elect someone like Trump - or worse - four years later! The days of trusting the US are over. Countries around the world looking to divest themselves from trade with Donnistan are smart.
Countries around the world looking to divest themselves from trade with Donnistan are smart.
No one challenges this. But China is not the solution.
Then which country has the production power to contest US. For now, not the whole or the only, but a part of the solution. The solution being diversification.
How is China any different than US or Israel.
I think the significant production power of China was one of the points. As in, “China can sell cheap and has little need to buy from us”, outselling local markets in the long run.
Sounds like valid concern and as you pointed out, Canada might need to diversify, instead of replacing one single point of failure with another.
Being biased against the CCP is called having at least two braincells to rub together.
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Economic threats aside China is also a real physical threat. Every penny to the CCP is a penny that could be used to wage war, either directly or via proxy as they are known for.
That’s funny because the usa is the biggest funder of terrorism and proxies
So you’re saying they should work with murdering assholes because somewhere else is a different group of murdering assholes and that normalizes it?
Canadian and European weapons are used in Gaza and Sudan, two extreme form of genocide. I guess Canadian should not works with Europe and Europe should not work with Canada. You where fine with working with the USA before Trump too . The west was benefiting from the USA imperialism and wars until trump threatened them
So no difference to the US, except at least the Chinese government is not a bunch of unpredictable and irrational clowns shitting their pants more and more every day.
If your metric for success is how competent they are at bloodthirsty militant takeovers then yes, China is “winning”. The problem is that no matter how Canada bends over for them or works to please them, China will never be on “their side”.
Looking at USA and its history it is too not on anyone’s side for long.
Firstly, thats completely off topic to Chinese interference in Canadian democracy and economics. Secondly, they have a multi century friendship with France and Ireland and managed to build the worlds largest mutual defence pact NATO which also protects Canada.
US interference in foreign countries democracy and economics is par for the course and much more destructive than anything China has done. South America, Cuba, Central America, Iran, Afghanistan… The list goes on.
The only difference being the countries were not white. China doesn’t discriminate. It interferes immaterial of race.
The current version of China is not even century old still it has treaties with Russia, North Korea. That doesn’t prove anything.
With friends like those, hopefully it doesnt last another century.
If Canada can survive with US surely China would too.
No one will be on your side, ever. Look after yourself and your interests. Fuck USA, China is the only viable trade partner at the moment to replace the USA. China doesn’t need to be “on their side”, and no one expects that from either China nor the USA anymore.
For like the 8th time, nobody comes in here to promote USA. It’s only in the discussion at all because you people think “USA BAD” qualifies as justification for a dictatorship hosting genocide and slave labor.
The most immediate question is probably, how long can your country remain functional without TSMC?
This comment is kind of funny because both the USA and China think TSMC and even Taiwan as a whole belongs to their side.
Only one claims ownership of the land where TSMC is based, and threatens to conduct a military invasion to enforce that claim.
The US’ interest is in maintaining the status quo for Taiwan - independence. The US has not attempted to dictate trade relationships for Taiwan or threatened to take military control of their country.
If taiwanese decide to become part of China which they aren’t current the usa would become hostile to them
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Okay, and?
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If the USA invaded Canada you would see a lot of US Citizens fighting for Canada.
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the chinese dont appear to act in bad faith like american government does
This is satire, right? China is the biggest bully in the Asia region, with Taiwan supposedly being the biggest example.
the chinese don t appear to be treacherous like the american government is
Another satirical comment. One example among many: Hong Kong, the “one country, two systems” narrative is and always was a bad joke.
But what makes your whole pro-China propaganda weird is that you compare everything with the US. The creation of an enemy is an integral part of any propaganda campaign, including China’s.
perhaps, as a canadian, i experience the threats of invasion, bad faith, insults and pedofilia of america more acutely. So we can just decide to disagree. In my mind, america is now equivalent with nazi germany and drumpf is equivalent with Hitler. Take or leave it but your wasting your time trying to change my mind
Take or leave it but your wasting your time trying to change my mind
Yes, I know. And this is also what any disinformation machine is looking for - people who are immune to any other narrative willingly to parrot the propaganda.
FIRST OF ALL, maybe China shouldn’t have helped Trump’s reelection with online psyops and openly promoting him with TikTok which led to the largest youth voter shift to conservative ever recorded.
Second, Chinese sent fucking tanks in to take over Hong Kong a short while ago, have been prepping to invade Taiwan if not for paranoid Xi Jinping replacing all of his top generals.
Thirdly, they literally kidnapped and replaced the fucking Panchen lama as a small child.
There is no category in which China isn’t worse than the USA.
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Your disagreement is with reality and also human decency.
Exactly China is no worse than US but for Canada US is an existential threat for now.
If Canada can trade with US surely they can trade with China.
the chinese don t appear to be treacherous like the american government is
Is this a joke? This is a joke, right?
I don’t need to imagine. China did a political kidnapping in Tibet in 1995.
only minority of american will fight fpr Canada and smuggle weapons
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So exactly like US.
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Every penny to US is used for war, either through proxy or directly.
I havent once said that Canada should trade with USA in this thread, and Canada is protected from the USA by NATO.
It kinda is, though? Just divesting enough could put pressure on the US to not be so stupid (long-term)
USA already has tons of incentive, it isn’t a rational actor in part because a bunch of beijing associated businessmen influenced US Elections like they’re trying to do in Canada.
