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1 year agoPerhaps a bit individualist of me, but I do feel there are many that have turned this into a pet project. Especially Biden and Blinken, their careers now live or die by at least stretching the conflict and maintaining its intensity.
They have no choice, to backdown now would be to admit to the warhawk faction they are totally incapable. It’ll be Afghanistan pullout 2.0 but 10x politically devastating. The Republicans would riot.
The future is bleak. I definetly see the pathway to formal NATO intervention, but that would destroy any ability make the eastern pivot.
The escalation is far from over, with f16s and God knows what else on the way, but it seems the US is trying to pivot while maintaining face, and thus soft power. I expect the conflict will eventually be “frozen”, atleast until Russian stockpiles are ready for a proper offensive.
Unfortunately I am more concerned about the political consequences of doing such. WWIII may happen or not, but it’s almost a certainty that facist and facist adjacent types will benefit greatly in the coming elections.
Le Pen is basically a shoe in at this point, Macron has so thoroughly burned through electoral trust. Of course Meloni already won, and undoubtedly will be strengthened. Trump is very likely to return to the Whitehouse, and how he handles the situation is unclear. It’ll be interesting to see how the Torries fair in a general since Labour isn’t doing too well either. AFD is still on the rise, even in South America many bourgeois are reacting to the economic fallout by couping soc dems like Castillo. Freaking we might see another Fujimori facist leading Peru again.
It feels like the 1930s all over again. Facist rise as liberals dogmatically enforce the very capitalism that creates facism. Whether WWIII arrives from facism, I am not sure.