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Cake day: October 29th, 2023

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  • Like others have mentioned, a lot of these statistics you’re using aren’t luck based. I think the ones that may work are the following: fumble recovery, fumble return td, # of opponent field goal misses that have nothing to do with the defense (like if the kicker clips a gimme fg to the right), an interception as a result of a perfectly thrown pass (the Gabe Davis special), a pass that should have been intercepted, any sort of pass that had been tipped and it’s outcome, team that wins the coin toss, etc

    Honestly, the more I think of it, I think you would have to watch every single minute of film to chalk up “lucky” plays. Like some could be bad players or bad coaching, but you would need some subjective method to differentiate that with luck. I keep thinking of Robert Meachem’s fumble recovery touchdown on the 2009 Saints ball vs Washington… and I can’t tell if that’s luck, a good play by Meachem or if it was stupid decision by the DB. I guess luck is the combination of all of it.