My guess: Passing EPA and rushing EPA aren’t independent. That is, rushing some optimal amount “earns” you more passing EPA than you “spend” in EPA by rushing, such that your net EPA is better than if you only pass.

Think of it like investing in a business. Invest a few dollars upfront in marketing, better employees, etc. (rushing) to improve your profit margins later (passing).

Of course, as with any business, if your profits increase by less than you invested, you’re going to lose money. Same here. If you run too much, your net EPA will decrease. So teams have to figure out that optimal balance.

They’re tied with the Eagles for #1 in the luck index. That’s got something to do with it.

To be fair, success in the NFL always turns on a bit of luck. And the Browns aren’t far behind, at #6.

But the Steelers’ luck rating (2.0) is on a different tier than the Browns’ (0.8). You’d expect some regression there at some point.

Then again, the Steelers are often like Billy Zane in Titanic—they somehow make their own luck.