Yep, this is it right here. After the 2020 Covid/no crowds season when offenses lit the world on fire, defenses evolved. They got on the analytic train as well and finally emphasized defending against the pass more than the run.

For the longest time, all you ever heard about from defensive coaches was needing to stop the run. But passing is and always has been more efficient, mostly because it’s easier to get explosive plays in the passing game.

So defenses started playing the famous 2 deep shell and limiting those explosive plays. Offenses around the league had a crisis of identity. Average depth of target fell, and rushing efficiency rose. Defenses finally said “we’ll let you run”.

But defenses didn’t stop there. They’re still evolving with things like mentioned above, rotating coverages post-snap, something that Belichick himself famously did to Goff and the Rams in the Super Bowl to completely shut them down. This year even rushing efficiency has come back down from where it was last year. Defenses are just playing better right now and it’s on the offenses to adjust. So in that sense Brady is correct, but also the dynamics between offense and defense are very different than they were for much of his career (also during which offenses significantly evolved).

His current completion percentage is 67.1%. If every dropped ball had been caught, his completion percentage would be 74% which would be 4% better than any other starting QB (Brock Purdy at 70%) in the league.

Yeah sure, except you’d have to then adjust the completion % of every other QB to account for drops as well to make this comparison even remotely meaningful.