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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • Did they train this chatbot on Donald Trump speeches?

    one user asked the chatbot: “who would win in a fight, Howard the Duck or Batman?”.

    The answer from the chatbot, verbatim, is:

    Howard: I don’t think so. I think it’s just a matter of time before we get to the point where we’re going to be able to say, “Hey, you know what, we’ve got to do this. We’ve gotta do that.” And then we’ll have to figure out how to make it work. And that’s what I’ve been doing for a long time now, and I’m really excited about it. It’s a really exciting time for me, because I have a lot of friends who are in the UFC and they’re all fighting for the same thing, so I feel like I can do something really special for them. So I want to go out there and make sure that we do what we can to get the best out of each other. That’s the only way I know how. e’ve got to do this. We’ve gotta do that.” And then we’ll have to figure out how to make it work.


  • I’ve done some blacksmithing as a hobby. The two most common ways of heating the metal are a gas or a coal forge. The coal forge normally has some sort of forced air coming from the bottom to feed the fire. The coal starts burning real smoky like, but then turns to coke and burns hotter the more air you force through it. Typically you pile some coal around the sides of the fire so it converts to coke then you scoop it into the fire as needed. Also it produces a waste product called clinker that builds up at the bottom of the fire at the tuyere (the nozzle or grate the air is forced through). It’s kind of like stone or metal and it needs to be cleaned out to keep the fire going.


  • Thanks for the correction. I remembered seeing that number but didn’t analyze it in any depth. A more detailed analysis of the market, by Freddie Mac, concluded that there were four main drivers for the recent surge in prices, and investors weren’t on the list.

    1. record low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021, and the race to beat future rate increases;
    2. limited supply from underbuilding and below average distressed sales;
    3. an increase in first-time homebuyers due to favorable age demographics; and
    4. increased migration from high-cost cities to areas that already had a housing shortage.

    Institutional investors apparently even reduced their purchases in 23 - some of them were even net sellers - because of prices and interest rates. That doesn’t mean they aren’t still villians in this scenario. I don’t think big investors should own single family homes at all. But still they aren’t as big a force as my previous comment indicated.



  • I understand your feelings of horror at the idea of what is coming. Your desire to reduce our impact on the climate is commendable. I share it and have structured my life to cause the least impact I can. I have no children. I generate my own power renewably, etc. But like I was saying, it doesn’t matter. Every bit of fossil fuel I spare is going to be used by someone else. We make Paris accords and agreements and resolutions to reduce our consumption. But they are meaningless. Every time we make a 10% or 20% reduction in emissions per capita it is negated by growth in population. Our numbers continue to increase. And the CO2 we emit goes up every year.

    The population of every other species on the planet is kept in check by limits on the resources available or they become a resource and are limited by predation. And so they live in balance with the environment, never exceeding the carrying capacity of the earth to support them. But we are clever enough to figure out how to use every available source of energy to keep increasing our population. We long ago exceeded the natural carrying capacity of the earth. We are now relying on fossil fuels to keep us alive. (I’ll skip arguing why basing the survival of your population on a non-renewable resource is a bad idea. See William Catton: Overshoot to read about that.) And so we are stuck in a catch-22 in a few different ways.

    First of all, if we just stopped using fossil fuels we wouldn’t be able to produce enough food to sustain our numbers. We wouldn’t be able to transport the food to the people. And we wouldn’t be able to store it and cook it. Oh, but we don’t have to stop, just reduce, one might say. As I already mentioned, that doesn’t work. Every reduction we make is negated by more people needing to use their smaller amount.

    The second catch-22 is the aerosol masking effect. Ironically our prodigious use of fossil fuels helps keep the earth cooler, but only as long as we continue to use them. Aerosols produced from fossil fuel use reflect a significant amount of solar radiation back into space. During the Covid-19 shutdown the reduced air traffic was enough to cause a noticeable increase in warming even though that is just one source of aerosols in the atmosphere.

    And third, everyone deserves a chance at life. We are loath to say to the young “you can’t live as well as your elders because we have to stop using energy.” And there is no politically feasible way to control the growth of a population. China tried it and look how well that worked. We cannot control our population growth. It will continue to increase until some external force acts upon us to stop it. And with more people comes more energy use.

    We already know that increasing CO2 is making climate change worse. We can’t stop increasing CO2 emissions. Ergo climate change will continue to get worse. I haven’t even mentioned how that’s going to effect us, the impacts it will have on crop production around the world. Suffice to say that no matter how much we want to fix the problem, we can’t. For decades scientists have been warning us we have to act now or it will be catastrophic. We never acted in a meaningful way. And now the consequences are upon us. There is no time to stop the car, we are already over the cliff. We just haven’t hit bottom yet.



  • So this is the Atheism community and dunking on christians is appropriate, but I just don’t see it in this case. At this point it doesn’t matter what you do. Buy an electric car, put up solar panels, grow all your food in your yard. You aren’t going to stop climate change. You aren’t even going to slow it down. According to this source we’ve already dumped over 1.5 trillion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. This one says 2.4 trillion. About half of it has been absorbed into the oceans. The rest is driving an inexorable global warming. And we have no realistic way of removing that CO2. The best we have today is the Orca plant in Iceland which pulls 4,000 tons per year from the air. Occidental is promising another DAC plant that will remove 500,000 metric tons of CO2 per year. But given that we’re currently emitting about 40 billion tons per year, that’s not gonna do it. The climate is already reacting. People are already dying. James Hansen estimates that “Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C” unless we all just stop using fossil fuels and devote all our resources to removing CO2 from the air.

    And I don’t think there was ever another way for this to play out. Our whole history has been about finding the next better way of feeding our families and growing our population. And then we find fossil fuels. Make them into fertilizer, use them to power farm equipment, industry, wars, they looked like a gift and we used them to fuel the biggest growth of our population in history. What nation would say “no, I’d rather use mules and dung for farming. It’s better for the earth.” There was never any alternative. You could even say that it’s our purpose as a species to find and consume all the available energy the planet has to offer. Now that we have around 8 billion people on the planet we have to keep using them just to feed ourselves.

    No, I think if there were a god this would just prove that he hates us, knowing what would happen when we found fossil fuels and putting them there anyways.









  • I’ve struggled with this for my whole life (and I’m not young) but haven’t succeeded in developing my willpower much at all. I think it’s just part of your ‘personality’. In quotes because you can change your personality somewhat with therapy or other growth techniques, but it takes a lot of work and there is no guarantee it will happen.

    That said, I do use commitment devices to substitute for willpower sometimes. One that works for me is to join a class or group for exercise or other things. In my case it has worked for meditation, exercise, martial arts, and others. I find that when I wake up and feel like ‘I just want to lie around and play video games all day’ I then remind myself ‘the folks at the group will notice I’m gone, I’ll have to explain it, and It would feel better to just attend’. And so I get my exercise. Usually. If my brain can convince me I’m not feeling well I still skip out sometimes.


  • Just finished Breathedge. Subnautica in space? Sort of, but with a ‘ha, aren’t we game developers funny’ kind of humor. Portal is an immersive game that’s really funny. The humor in Breathedge, however, insures you can never really settle in to the game. Even so, It’s most impressive what such a small team was able to accomplish.

    Just started Plague Tale: Innocence. Stealth survival with hordes of rats - a little creepy and I’m not really expecting an uplifting ending, but we’ll see how it goes.



  • First of all it’s completely understandable for you to feel frustrated and stressed in a situation like this. You really don’t have the power to fix other people’s problems. Have you ever been to a therapist? The one constant among good therapists is that they don’t give you advice. They don’t tell you what to do. And they don’t try to fix the problems in your life. But they do end up helping you. So what do they know that the rest of us don’t? They know that the best way to help someone is to listen supportively, to validate their feelings, and to give them a chance to think about their life while leaning on the emotional support of someone who cares about them. There’s more but that’s a good start. And if you can do that you really are helping a lot more than you think.

    Take as an example, a conversation I had with my wife today (remembered as well as I can). She was in a really bad mood and wasn’t talking with me.
    I asked her “what’s got you feeling down today?”
    She angrily said she didn’t want to talk with me about it because she knew what I would say and she didn’t want to hear it.
    (That, by the way, is a pretty clear hint that someone is not in present time emotionally.)
    I said “so you’re saying I’m never supportive of you when you’re upset?”
    She said “I’m feeling overworked and stressed. There’s always too much to do. And I know you are just going to say you also have too much to do.”
    I said “I did say ‘I feel the same way’ once when you said you could use a day off. But that doesn’t mean I can’t appreciate that you’re overworked. I understand. There’s a lot going on right now and it’s hard to keep up.”
    She continued talking about how she felt. I continued validating her feelings. And she cheered up and her mood improved.

    My point is, “just being there” is code for listening supportively, validating someone’s feelings, and helping them regain the balance they need to address their problems themselves.

    Edit: to be clear, I’m no saint. Sometimes I’m the grumpy one and my wife is the paitent one. It works both ways.