Shit throw from Love but it worked

Purdy right now should be the front runner for MVP 100%.

If a non-QB won the award this season, I’d wager it’s Tyreek Hill or CMC.

PFF does a good job for qualitative analysis. Additionally, and I said this in the beginning of the post, but this wasn’t meant to be a comprehensive evaluation.

Additionally, while saying YAC is largely a function of receiver play and good blocking may have some truth to it, so does CAY. A receiver like Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill who can reliably gain separation deep will inflate a CAY just like how a receiver like AJ Brown or Deebo Samuel can inflate YAC.

I see what you mean, and maybe you’re right, but idk if CAY would be inflated to the same extent. A screen pass is sometimes thrown behind the line of scrimmage which means the CAY is 0, but the passing yards (and YAC) could go for many yards. Idk if that’s a useful way of looking at how well a QB throws the football. Not to say it isn’t useful at all, it obviously can increase a teams EPA/Play or per dropback for the QB.

Offensive line pass blocking skill also systematically biases CAY values. Poor pass blocking lines or average lines who have to face formidable defensive lines will necessarily have game plans to neutralize this issue. You will see a lot of slide protections and screens, which is a choice made somewhat independent of QB skill

Thanks, forgot to list this as one of the limitations at the end. I remember thinking that after I listed “coach”.

These analyses are interesting, however I would caution using these numbers as a way to rank QBs against each other when there is this amount of noise in the data. This is a theme true for many football statistics, not just CAY.

Yeah, and like I mentioned, this is only part of the equation. A more comprehensive look can (and should) be taken into consideration down the line, probably at the end of the season when there is a larger sample size.

1.) If alpha is set to 0.05, for two-tail, you find the upper and lower critical values (all you need is to find one and use symmetry to find the other). So after doing the math, the closest value on the Z chart is 1.959964. Anything between -1.959964 and +1.959964 is not statistically significant, so we therefore fail to reject the null hypothesis.

2.) Success Rate is only looking at passing. There is a separate Succ% for rushing

3.) I think Mahommes is having a down year based off his previous seasons. Could be due to Kelce injury, strength of opponent, and that flu game. May not explain all of it, but maybe some.

4.) Not sure I understand your last question. A 6 yard gain on 3rd and 10 would not be a successful play, and if it were accomplished with his legs it would not count toward the Succ% above