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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • Interception stats and interception luck are pretty interesting. So much of a team can be hidden by turnover luck. The Patriots for example have had fantastic luck generating turnovers the last few seasons (even going back as far towards the end of the Brady era). That floor has completely dropped out from under the Patriots this season when through the first half of the season they were at or near the worst in the league at generating turnovers.

    Some fans have pointed to the Matt Patricia lead offense as scoring more points than the BOB offense but I think this was largely due to vastly superior generation of turnovers by the defense. This season, the Zach Wilsons of the world aren’t chucking the ball into triple coverage and are instead taking the sack. If Jonathan Jones gets beat for a catch he hasn’t been immediately following it up with the Peanut punch to get the ball back.

    I think interceptions by the defense are largely a product of the offenses they face which makes the stat very inconsistent. Patriots played a huge stretch of backup QBs, backup to the backup QBs, and Zach Wilson for years which propped up their numbers.