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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: March 14th, 2025

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  • Things tend to turn in cycles, and we are experiencing the end of a cycle similar to that which occurred in the late 1920s and led into WWII. Billionaire Ray Dalio put out a nice ELI5 type video a few years back summarizing his book “Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order” that basically puts into the context of history what we are currently going through. I had read his book back in 2022, and things have significantly progressed precisely as anticipated in the 4 years since it came out. In my opinion, things will come to a head this year, probably in the fall. I believe that we are currently in the late stages of excess, similar to the late 1920s, and that we will have a “blow off top” in the stock market and the biggest financial crisis of all time, and I’m not the only one. Look at what has been happening to the price of gold, which is currently over $5K/oz and has been on the greatest bull run of all time, which has largely been driven by purchases from the world’s central banks. This is the world shifting away from the dollar as the reserve currency, which will only accelerate as the dollar collapses. My greatest concern is that Trump will use the chaos that erupts to nakedly seize power and dispense with the ruse that he’s a president and not a king.



  • While senior Trump aides had anticipated some brief surge in oil prices in the first days of the war with Iran, the size and sustainability of the market reaction caught them off guard, people familiar with the internal discussions told CNN.

    In what world is it a surprise to see oil prices spiking when you launch an attack on an oil producer in the middle east? Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz over the years, which would stop the flow of ~30% of the world’s oil. It’s one of the very few levers of power Iran has to pull, and anyone with an ounce of common sense knew they’d do it if attacked. Fortunately, we’re in a midterm election year, so the catastrophe Trump has teed up will hopefully torpedo Republicans’ grip on Congress.


  • I think Ferrari has gotten a bit better since Vasseur took over, but they still blunder a lot. In this race they deployed a one-stop strategy for both cars, when they absolutely should have brought one of them in during the VSC to keep a check on Russell. It’s frustrating, as their cars have pace this year and the new regs have changed the game on strategy to keep things much closer. This was just the first race, so hopefully they’ll iron out things as the season progresses.