Dull_Juice [he/him]

IDK stuff

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: January 17th, 2022

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  • This isn’t concrete evidence but I feel like a lot of craft breweries made one or two good beers as a homebrewer and somehow knew people or had established money to start up a craft brewery. Since I do like checking out craft breweries and most have literally 1-2 good beers and the rest mid to poor (the bigger the draft list generally more likely all are poor). A lot of these breweries get bailed out by good locations or recently providing spaces to let the adults booze + “Watch the kids”.

    I like to homebrew and so I’m aware of the process and have some idea of the costs since there was a moment I thought about it before I realized how much money I’d have to find (not happening) and how much I dreaded the business side of it. It’s much more fun to just give people beer and see them enjoy it.










  • Alright well this hubris reminds me of when I was taking with a former air force pilot years ago. He was at least a lot less ridiculous than this individual in the article. What stood out to me was that basically he said they’d win for sure because the Soviet/ Russian pilots weren’t trained right because their respective military was too afraid they’d just leave with the planes. He also added the ones that were any good were also too by the book with no freedom to operate independently based on the mission.

    It’s something I feel like I’ve heard once in an article shared here about the Chinese pilots as well. Not sure if that’s just kool-aid moving through the system and how true it is exactly. I’m sure some of it is doctrine related and most of it is kool-aid.


  • Yeah, I saw you were quoting a Fair.org article so figured I’d read the archive link first. What a whiff.

    I definitely agree, with some of your points remind me of what I read this morning on Michael Robert’s blog and additional ones that are all correct.

    What is puzzling many is that the US economy at least is apparently achieving a ‘soft landing’ from the pandemic, with inflation down, unemployment low and average real incomes beginning to rise, but the American public still seems depressed and uncertain about the future.

    The problem is that inflation has only fallen by half and remains well above the pre-pandemic level of under 2%. And that fall is almost entirely due to the end of supply blockages caused by the pandemic and the eventual fall in energy and food prices. As many have explained, it has had little to do with the monetary policy of the central banks.

    The misery index may be down, but most households in the US, Europe and Japan are still suffering the after-effects of the pandemic slump. Prices in Europe and the US are higher by about 17-20% compared to the end of the pandemic. Jobs may be plentiful, but in general they do not pay well and are often part-time or temporary. Moreover, the continuing war in Ukraine and now the horrendous decimation of Gaza could lead to a reversal of the past fall in global supply chain pressure – according to the New York Fed index.

    The hope of the optimists is that AI and LLMs will kick-start a ‘roaring 20s’, similar to that experienced in the US after the end of the Spanish flu epidemic from 1918-20 and the subsequent slump of 1920-21. But some things are different now. In 1921, the US was fast-rising manufacturing power, sweeping past war-torn Europe and a declining Britain. Now the US economy is in relative decline, manufacturing is stagnating and the US faces the threat of the rise of China, forcing it to conduct proxy wars globally to preserve its hegemony.