My take on the cluster munitions:

The Obama Admin stopped ALL testing of the many variants early in his first term. Due to international treaties was the claim.

No test range was allowed to authorize their use, and no one in charge of munitions storage was allowed to ship them anywhere.

Even the training rounds (flash-bang, not real explosives with shrapnel) were restricted for a time, then handed out in very small supplies.

The upshot of all this?

No one knows how reliable the stockpile really is.

Stockpile reliability requires using a small percentage each year from various production lots to validate that aging munitions still work. And that is done with items stored in munitions bunkers, not ones that have been lugged around in the real world.

Missing 8 years or more of testing means the required functionality can’t be guaranteed. Not just of the submunition, but of the fuze and the main charge itself.

In essence, the Ukraine will be using a very questionable stock of risky munitions. The worst case scenario for a fuze failure is an immediate function, meaning while inside the launch tube. A very traumatic experience for the user. The other non-function case means the projectile simply splatters against the ground without the air burst. More likely would be an incorrect altitude, too high or too low. Too high means a very large spread, too low means a small spread, and very low would cause most submunitions to not have enough airflow to active their rip cord and hence fuze set.

With the past supplying of outdated Stingers and Javelins, my guess is that “passing the trash” for avoiding more de-milling problems is as much a reason for the supply as them really making an difference in the Ukraine.

On a side note, the headlines this week are that the last of the US chemical weapons stockpiles destruction is nearing the end. I don’t think any have been made since the 50’s.