A more interesting “bear case” for AI is that, if you look at the list of industries that leading AIs like GPT-4 are capable of disrupting—and therefore making money off of—the list is lackluster from a return-on-investment perspective, because the industries themselves are not very lucrative. What are AIs of the GPT-4 generation best at? It’s things like:
writing essays or short fictions
digital art
chatting
programming assistance
Weird that AI isnt replacing things like management, CEOs, stock investors, accountants… you know, jobs that tend to be about numbers and efficiency, which you would think AI would excel at.
Instead, we have it skirting copyright by stealing other people works and changing it just enough to not be a direct copy.
stock investors, accountants
Computers already replaced a lot of them long ago.
management, CEOs
What part of their jobs do you think an AI can replace?
What part of their jobs do you think an AI can replace?
The whole sitting around, profiting from actual laborers part, I’m guessing.
YouTube sacks people by algorithm for some time now.
the part where they collect all the money and go on vacations cant be replaced by ai but could certainly be extinguished.
Not to darken your perspective, but you don’t really think that AI’s gonna remain as fundamentally stupid as it is currently, do you? As soon as any sort of self-awareness crops up (could be decades, could be months), you think it’ll just install a global UBI, etc. and make all human life equally enjoyable and kush? Follow-up question: care to share what you’re smoking?
Oh this day can come, but we’re pretty much at the birth of this thing and what we have now is not close. There are a lot of cool theories currently but I don’t really think we can really predict it this far for now. I think right now its beholden to its masters, so the capitalist elites will have their say on how we use it for now.
What I meant was that the job of a CEO doesn’t really need to exist in its current form.
Follow up answer: I guess I smoke a variety of those types of things but way too seldomly to really give you a good answer.
All fair points, and if you’re ever on the Upper Left Coast, drop me a line. It all but grows on trees out here. 🤌🏼
Weirdly the things it’s the worst at.
What about LLMs that are taking over or helping with jobs that require sorting and organizing complicated data, and they do it fast, 24/7, and with just enough accuracy. They’re not flawless, but they mess up less than poorly trained and high turnover staff.
LLMs don’t sort or organize data. Machine learning can do it but LLMs specifically only generate text. I think that’s the whole point. People confuse machine learning with LLMs. Machine learning can do amazing things in many industries. Companies creating dedicated products using machine learning can make money. LLMs themselves can do very little and huge valuations of companies like OpenAI don’t make much sense.
This is exciting it just probably hasnt come to fruition this quarter. And businesses that are succeeding with AI dont really need to brag about it in the news. (Amazon?)
AI will utterly upend the entertainment industry. Once AI can generate movie-length animated output, Hollywood will go the way of the vaudeville. Directors, film crew, actors and all the supply chain and ancillary industries revolving around movie-making will be obsolete.
II thin it’s actually possible. Normally the argument against is that “AI can’t be creative” but when was the last time Hollywood made a creative movie? “Write a script for Spiderman movie. Include origin story. Spiderman will fight Green Goblin. Again.”.
when was the last time Hollywood made a creative movie?
Most Pixar films. They’re entirely animated in cg, and yet I highly doubt the ability of an ai to generate a better final product.
They can’t what do you think the writers strike was all about??
The thing is, the protections writers won only protected them when working WITH AI. I.e. companies can’t hire unionized writers and pay them less because they are using AI. If they can skip the writers all together all those protections go out the window.
I’m not saying this will happen soon or at all. I’m just saying that if the models become capable or generating screen ready material the protections writers won won’t matter anymore.
We’re like 5 years away from this:
