In particular, it seems to me that centralization is almost a law of the universe (or at least a tendency). Lemmy may start decentralized, with dozens or hundreds of meaningfully-sized instances, but it’s easy to imagine a not-far future where most everyone has settled on just a handful of instances (or even just one).
I don’t mean to just be a pessimist here. I’m sure I’m far from the first person to wonder about this, and I’m curious whether there are ideas of how to counterbalance the tendency toward centralization.
While I generally agree with you, the problem is, that we already have precedence going in other directions.
Web1 was initially very decentralised. Usenet, static websites hosted on small servers, etc.
Web2 made the internet much more accessible, but people consistently preferred well polished easy to use centralised services instead of the “slow and less UX optimised” decentralised alternatives. Even email isn’t really decentralised today as people don’t boycott (or care about) the big email providers (Microsoft, Google etc.) censoring or blacklisting mailservers outside of their walled garden.
I wish, that the people have made enough bad experiences with web2 to actually understand and care about web3 federation. If they don’t understand why this is necessary and just go from one company to another, then we’ll be doomed to repeat it all again… Let’s see.
Obviously the people already here are slightly biased. It’s a big task to get the Reddit people off and into the Fediverse! But we can do it!