Summary:
1.Bad teams winning is good.
2.If two teams have the same record, the team with a lower strength of schedule (SOS) gets the earlier pick. So, teams on Bears or Panthers schedule losing is good.
Current draft order and SOS, via Tankathon
TEAMS WITH BYE WEEKS: Bears (4-8), Bills (6-6), Giants (4-8), Raiders (5-7), Ravens (9-3), Vikings (6-6)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Seahawks (6-5) at Cowboys (8-3)
Preferred result = Seahawks win. This game seems pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. But, the Seahawks winning would increase the Cards SOS, helping our pick/Panthers pick win a potential tiebreaker with the Cardinals first rounder in the event that one of us/Panthers end with the same record as the Cards.
SUNDAY EARLY SLOT
Chargers (4-7) at Patriots (2-9)
Preferred result = Patriots win. Pats are currently the 1.03. Them winning would would increase the Panthers chance of being the 1.01 and put the Patriots only a game behind the Bears.
Lions (8-3) at Saints (5-6)
Preferred result = Saints. This game is a bit of a double edged sword. There are a lot of 4-win teams, so our SOS being as low as possible helps with tie breakers.
Falcons (5-6) at Jets (4-7)
Preferred result = Jets win. A Falcons loss lowers the Panthers SOS.
Cardinals (2-10) at Steelers (7-4)
Preferred result = Cardinals win. Cards are at the 1.02 now, so a win would be another step towards securing the 1.01. Also puts them just a game behind the Bears in draft order.
Colts (6-5) at Titans (4-7)
Preferred result = Titans win. Bears and Tits are both sitting at 4 wins, so a Titans win would move them later than the Bears in draft order.
Dolphins (8-3) at Commanders (4-8)
Preferred result = Commanders win. Same reason as above, Commies are at 4 wins so a W would help move them later than the Bears.
Broncos (6-5) at Houston (6-5)
Preferred result = Broncos win. Another game that seems pretty irrelevant since both teams are in playoff contention. The Texans played the Panthers earlier this year, so powering the Panthers’ SOS would be a bit helpful.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SLOT
Panthers (1-10) at Buccaneers (4-7)
Preferred result = Bucs win. Another step towards us securing the 1.01.
49ers (8-3) at Eagles (10-1)
Preferred result = 49ers win. Another game between playoff teams, so nothing huge at stake here. A 49ers win increases the Cards SOS, helping with any potential tiebreakers.
Browns (7-4) at Rams (5-6)
Preferred result = Rams win. Same reason as above, increasing Cards SOS seems like the best outcome here.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Chiefs (8-3) at GB (5-6)
Preferred result = Chiefs win. Helps lower our SOS.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Bengals (5-6) at Jaguars (8-3)
Preferred result = Jags win. I couldn’t find any reason that one team winning would help/hurt us, but I like the Jags so I’m rooting for them.
Only 5 games so far went our way
Fuck all of this. Playoffs bound or bust
Can’t argue with that despite how realistic you may think the chances of a wildcard are but… No shame.onnhedging your bets either.
I appreciate the effort in the write up, but can we get one of these for a potential playoff berth (however unlikely that is) and not act like total losers for two seasons in a row? I’m here to root for my team to WIN.
Lol. For real. I’m not watching football to root for better picks. I wanna see wins, always.
We can stop acting like losers when we stop being losers. Best way to stop being losers? Add talent through the draft
holy shit, i didn’t even notice the bye was this week, what the fuck.
i guess things really slip your mind when the team is so bad, lmao.
Can we get one of these for a potential playoff berth (however unlikely that is) and not act like total losers for two seasons in a row? I’m here to root for my team to WIN.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/chicago-bears-nfl-playoff-picture.html
This is fun to mess around with. It has us at a 2% chance to make the playoffs as of right now, 70% if we win out. The rest of our schedule is not too bad.
Packers, Saints, Rams, Vikings, and Seahawks are at 5 or 6 wins and are the main teams fighting for the 6 and 7 seed, the Cowboys are close to locking down the 5 seed
Now up to 74 for us winning out
I think we probably want the Packers to win. SOS is important, but the Packers are only one game ahead of us, so they are a threat to pick before we do.
My understanding is that we want the panthers to have the lower SOS so packers losing helps that and us because FTP.
FTP, always.
Id like the Packers to lose because ftp
Nah, FTP.
Biggest thing is Carolina losing.
Excellent job with researching this all.