With Frank Reich getting fired and Bryce Young not looking anything like the player he was at Bama (granted he’s not working with much), this inquiry seemed highly relevant to me and the NFL could look very different if the dominoes fell in a different formation.
Pretty straightforward: Lovie said fuck it and coached his boys to win their second game of the year in the last week of 22, ultimately losing the first overall pick in the draft and instead picking 2 overall. Thus, Chicago does not get the first pick and Carolina would not be able to trade up to number 1. Houston would not have traded that first pick, and they’d have their choice of the 2 consensus top QBs.
I’m not saying Stroud wasn’t their guy. He may have been that dude regardless and they very well could have picked him. But most prognosticators assessed Young as the safer prospect with a higher ceiling.
What if Houston gets that first pick and drafts Young? Does Chicago trade their pick still? Does Chicago stay put? Who do they snag at 2 if so? Does Carolina still try to move up to 2 to get a QB? Does another team like Indy get into the mix? What does Chicago’s future outlook look like without those potential picks going forward? Same question about Carolina, reversed. Do they keep all those picks and have a better outlook? What if Chicago doesn’t get Moore in a deal? What if the Panthers QB has Moore as his WR1 instead of Theilen? How does Houston look relative to how impressive they’ve been? Does Carolina still have 1 win? Is Reich still there?
So many dominoes, how would the NFL look if the first domino never happened? Which ones did I miss? Just curious of others thoughts!
It doesn’t matter anymore.
Ultimately, the Panthers just need to get their shit together.
I think in that scenario, Houston takes Young, Chicago trades the Pick to Carolina and Carolina takes Stroud and Indy once again ends with A rich.
I believe Stroud looks slightly less amazing but still quite good in Carolina. The credit goes to Tepper for hiring Frank Reich and his smart mix of veteran coaches and Reichs reputation as a QB guru is officially cemented. Narratives spin about Houston once again setting up yet another prospect for failure and how drafting a young quarterback demands, an offensive-minded head coach or the guy is going to fail.
Chicagos decision looks even worse and questions about the franchise’s perpetual inability to scout QBs and offensive talent is further cemented.
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Houston takes Young. Then I believe the Colts and Titans fight over trading for 2. I think the Titans win and they get Stroud. Colts still end up with Richardson.
I still think Texans take Stroud. Casserio had his chance at Young and didn’t take it. Panthers dangled Stroud as their pick when they were willing to trade back (to two) and not Young. They wouldn’t do that if we were targeting Young.
In this scenario Stroud goes 1. Young goes 2 to Indy.
And we don’t get Anderson either.
Who gets will Levis?
Big Mayo
The Texans, deciding that either QB is fine, go through with the rumored three way trade, where they receive the second overall and a lil extra, the bears receive a shitload from the panthers, and the panthers draft Bryce Young.
Panthers at the very least keep DJ Moore in this scenario.
My thoughts:
Houston takes Young
Carolina still trades up to 2 - it’s virtually been confirmed there was a 3 way trade between Houston, Chicago, and Carolina that would’ve had Houston getting #1 and Carolina getting #2 that fell apart at the 11th hour. And I still think they have to give up DJ Moore to do so (but maybe don’t have to give up the 2025 2nd as Houston would be providing some capital to Chicago as well)
Young looks much better in Houston than he does in Carolina because Bobby Slowik sure seems like a much better offensive play caller than Young, though I doubt Young reaches the levels Stroud has
Carolina also looks better with Stroud, who simply has shown more arm talent and better anticipation than Young thus far, which would allow him to succeed in some situations where Young has failed. They’re not where Houston is, but they’re closer to .500 than a single win imo which means Reich is still there.
Bonus domino: does Houston take Dell without Stroud pushing for it? Maybe, as he’s still a hometown kid, or maybe Stroud expresses his affinity for Dell to Carolina and they trade back from 39, don’t take Mingo, and draft Dell in the late 2nd?
I don’t think Houston takes Dell without Stroud’s input. Based on history, Houston likes bigger receivers, but that’s also ignoring not knowing what the new coaching staff likes.
Looks like we need Dave Dameshek to make a new N if L
I feel like things are the same for the most part, Houston takes who they like the most (let’s just say it’s Bryce for this scenario). The Bears are still trying to trade down, and I think they probably get around same package(maybe a bit less), as Carolina would still want a QB, heck Carolina was originally going to trade up 2 irl.
The main difference would just be where the top 2 QBs are.
Maybe there’s a question about Houston’s trade up to 3?
We’ve been talking about what-ifs and first rounders between Chicago and Houston for 20 years.
sad noises
I truly believe that ending a season on a winning note is more important than having the first overall pick. What he did there was lay the foundation for a winning culture that DeMeco built on.
This is purely intangible and logically they’re probably just as good so long as they take Stroud, but it does say something that these teams that try to be bad to get picks usually end up staying bad unless they have a massive cultural overhaul.
If the Texans lose.
Texans choose Bryce Young #1 overall Bears trade down with panthers #2 overall for everything except for DJ Moore
Panthers likely finish 7-10 to end the year with CJ Stroud and DJ Moore proving to be promising. Bears and up with 11th pick in the 2024 draft
I think the factor that hasn’t been brought up here yet is Ryans. He gets to interview both QBs before the draft and realizes CJ is a better fit in the locker room. He and CJ are a perfect pairing. I’m guessing the Texans passed on the trade because they knew the Panthers owner was set on Young and they felt like they preferred what they saw in CJ.
Apparently Stroud and Slowik got into it during the pre draft meetings as Slowik wanted to push CJ’s knowledge of the game as far as he could