I feel like this is at the crux of the Fields vs. draft QB debate.
If you don’t draft a QB at #1, you can take higher-probability successes (MHJ) or trade down into more picks, which increases the chances you get some viable starters and possibly even elite players.
If you do draft a QB, you’re really hoping that guy works out. And by “works out” I mean is an elite contributor at the NFL level. He has to be, because you’re trying to replace a fairly average NFL starter, so the marginal benefit is diminished if the guy you draft is just pretty good.
KTO also has done some great videos of positional odds too.
Where 1st is general immediate impacts. 2nd, backups to eventual starters. 3rd depth with chance of start. 4th - 7th hands in air. Can be good, can also be situation never make it out of final cuts.
For those just wanting to just move on from Fields - becareful what you wish for. Could you imagine if he left the team and became a superstar with a real coaching staff that designs a system around his strengths and then we draft a “Zach Wilson”?
That would suck but you can say that about any player that is not living up to expectations.
As a Bear, Fields is a bottom 3rd passer and that is in his best season. Can he turn it around maybe but playing this game you can never move on because what if…
Show me Fields with a real offensive gameplan and play caller. Fields is doing everything that is being asked of him.
My biggest criticism of Poles is how he put together the coaching staff. We can go back and forth if he actually hired and found Flus, or was just given 3 to make the final pick of.
However, all the rest of the staff he approved.
He approved an OC that had never called plays before.
He approved a QB coach who had never worked in the NFL before.
He approved the DC.
He approved as staff that as a whole, didn’t have a capable HC in waiting, on the off chance that he needed to fire Flus or if something unforeseen happened like Flus got sick or something.
He approved letting Flus be DC & HC, and make D play calls.
All of that is weak, and shows the team is right now, in disarray.
He hasn’t been horrible in drafting, but if he took Pickens last draft instead of another DB, maybe we don’t need to trade for Claypool and could have taken Joey Porter with the 1st pick of the 2nd round instead of him going to the Steelers.
Mismanagement of your staff is a fireable offense.
It’s always been 1/3, 1/3, 1/3.
1/3 become starters or all Pro; 1/3 become average players or journeymen; and 1/3 are busts or injury victims.
In every draft class there are 1 or 2 superstars / HOF’s from round 1.
Water is wet