The most efficient rushing team in the league, the Baltimore Ravens, still only averages -0.03 EPA per rush play. Averaging across the whole league, the average rushing play is -0.09 EPA and the average dropback play is 0.06 EPA.
Taken at face value, teams should abandon the run and just pass. This of course would be too simplistic as one could argue that the threat of a run helps unlocking the passing game and improves the EPA.
However, another way to look at this is perhaps EPA is just a flawed metric and is either too simplistic or is missing a key nuance in its modelling. Perhaps there’s a flat EPA adjustment we need to apply to all plays that would make rushing EPAs positive? Perhaps too much weight is given to the explosive pass? Perhaps we need to adjust the era data from when teams rarely played two high safeties to counter today’s passing league?
Nevertheless, I wonder if more and more OCs in the league are using EPA and other advanced analytics and coming to the conclusion you might when looking at this data that passing is far superior to running and ending up with too many teams trying to pass it on too many downs, abandoning the run and putting too much pressure on their average QB?
League average rush EPA is negative because most teams don’t use the run game properly.
Historically there was the idea that you need to “run to set up the pass.” Smart teams now know that it’s basically the total opposite.
There’s also the idea of “3rd and manageable” where teams opt to run the ball on 2nd and 10 because they want to avoid 3rd and long. Again, running the ball on 2nd and long is a very negative EPA play, yet even today some teams still do it religiously, which tends to drag down the average.
It’s not that teams should abandon the run entirely. It’s that the run game should largely be used situationally (i.e short yardage and clock-chewing situations) as opposed to being the staple of a modern offense. Multiple teams every year still have positive EPA/rush. Even the most pro-pass, analytics-based people aren’t going to argue a team like Philly or Baltimore should abandon the run.