Before we can address the question, we have to address the criteria that is unstated but very obviously true. The order of importance of how MVPs are selected goes by the following:
- Your team has to be winning/playoff bound. (100% of MVPs in the last decade)
- You have to be a QB. (100% of MVPs the last decade)
- You have to be an extremely efficient QB. (90% of QBs were top 5 in EPA or ANY/A the last 10 years)
- You have to have enough bulk stats to back up your efficiency stats. (60% of them have been top 5 in Yards)
- You have to have fan recognition (be a big name/good story).
The only exception to the efficiency rule is Cam Newton in 2015, a year he had 10 rushing TDs.
The current leaders in EPA are:
- Purdy
- Dak
- Mahomes
- Allen
- Tags
The current ANY/A leaders are:
- Purdy
- Tags
- Stroud
- Goff
- Dak
Top 5 in yards per game:
- Stroud
Cousins(injured) Tags- Goff
- Howell
- Mahomes
(Dak is 6th, fyi)
Based off this, my initial thoughts are Purdy, Mahomes, Dak, Tags and Stroud.
Currently the top 5 for Vegas betting are:
- Mahomes
- Hurts
- Tags
- Jackson
- Burrow
This tells me that stupid bets are on Burrow, Hurts, Jackson and the smart money is on Mahomes or Tags. The real value? Purdy, Stroud and Dak at +2000-3000.
Of the 5 that seem most likely to compete for the award based on efficiency/bulk stats, here are their remaining schedules:
- Mahomes: Eagles, Raiders x2, Packers, Bills, Pats, Bengals, Chargers
- Stroud: Cards, Jags, Broncos, Jets, Titans x2, Browns, Colts
- Tags: Raiders, Jets x2, WFT, Titans, Cowboys, Ravens, Bills
- Dak: Panthers, WFT x2, Hawks, Bills, Lions
- Purdy: Jags, Bucs, Eagles, Hawks, Cards, Ravens, WFT, Rams
Right now I’d say the best MVP odds are hurts Lamar and mahomes. Pretty much the criteria is be an excellent/ well known qb and be near the top of standings. Goff should be in the convo but I don’t think they like giving the lions that kinda press. I don’t think there’s any path for Purdy to win it because of how stacked that roster is. Purdy is not even a top 5 player on that offense, I think mccafery is a dark horse candidate as well, even tho they don’t really give it to RBs anymore.
Media has really convinced you that the niners have so many weapons huh. Our OL sucks, purdy is running for his life half the time. The eagles have a stacked roster too (better WRs and OL) and no one calls out Hurts this year.