While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.
I mean, that isn’t mutually exclusive with the quote. Both are true. It will be extremely hard for Ukraine to retake all of its territory, and it probably wouldn’t make sense either. But at the same time, this war was extremely costly for Russia and has turned it into a pariah state.
It will depend on sustained western support but Russia’s capaity to maintain the war effort is already breaking while the west is still holding back full support. Russia is on an inevitable downward trajectory and Ukraine is very effectively utilizing a well of military support that is only limited by public sentiment.
Russia is holding a great deal of their reserves back from this conflict. Ukraine is literally forcing people to join their military while Russia has thousands volunteering every week now. Support for the war increased dramatically after shells hit Russian soil. Russia’s increasing military industrial capacity has reinvigorated their economy to the point that Bretton Woods institutions are projecting higher growth for them than most of the countries sanctioning them.
On top of that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has gone so terribly for them that Putin is now able to sell the success of this “special military operation” to the people while having the luxury of considering alternative outcomes depending on what kind of losses they want to take after this recent Ukrainian effort is over.
The problem is Russia can be a pariah state and survive. They have natural resources which is all you really need to survive. They also inherited the Soviet Union’s military industry, thought not in it’s full capacity. The West might tire of of supporting Ukraine, it might not, but Russia doesn’t depend on others’ support, they can produce their own weapons. Not in sufficient quantities to conquer the whole of Ukraine, but in sufficient quantities to bog down the war for years to come.
Russia absolutely depends on the support to produce anything more sophisticated than a grenade and their access to advanced technology is increasingly limited to smuggling. Their military-industrial complex is suffering unprecedented brain-drain alongside a demographic collapse. If the west maintains anything like their current level of military support for Ukraine over the next few years Russia will have no choice but to withdraw.
I mean, that isn’t mutually exclusive with the quote. Both are true. It will be extremely hard for Ukraine to retake all of its territory, and it probably wouldn’t make sense either. But at the same time, this war was extremely costly for Russia and has turned it into a pariah state.
It will depend on sustained western support but Russia’s capaity to maintain the war effort is already breaking while the west is still holding back full support. Russia is on an inevitable downward trajectory and Ukraine is very effectively utilizing a well of military support that is only limited by public sentiment.
Russia is holding a great deal of their reserves back from this conflict. Ukraine is literally forcing people to join their military while Russia has thousands volunteering every week now. Support for the war increased dramatically after shells hit Russian soil. Russia’s increasing military industrial capacity has reinvigorated their economy to the point that Bretton Woods institutions are projecting higher growth for them than most of the countries sanctioning them.
On top of that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has gone so terribly for them that Putin is now able to sell the success of this “special military operation” to the people while having the luxury of considering alternative outcomes depending on what kind of losses they want to take after this recent Ukrainian effort is over.
The problem is Russia can be a pariah state and survive. They have natural resources which is all you really need to survive. They also inherited the Soviet Union’s military industry, thought not in it’s full capacity. The West might tire of of supporting Ukraine, it might not, but Russia doesn’t depend on others’ support, they can produce their own weapons. Not in sufficient quantities to conquer the whole of Ukraine, but in sufficient quantities to bog down the war for years to come.
Russia absolutely depends on the support to produce anything more sophisticated than a grenade and their access to advanced technology is increasingly limited to smuggling. Their military-industrial complex is suffering unprecedented brain-drain alongside a demographic collapse. If the west maintains anything like their current level of military support for Ukraine over the next few years Russia will have no choice but to withdraw.
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Russia seems to have only turned into a pariah state for the Western world. The opposite for the rest.