What’s crazy is that they aren’t just doing this because they make more money with AI. They’re doing this because these AI companies have basically pre-ordered a fuck ton of components that have not been manufactured yet to be put into computers that haven’t even been made yet for datacenters that are not even built yet all on an electrical grid that hasn’t caught up. As long as the manufacturers get paid they don’t really give a shit, but this is so unsustainable it would be hilarious if it weren’t so catastrophic for the rest of us. And as long as the line goes up as they all circle jerk their money around they’ll all be happy and can pretend the economy is good.
The thing is, this is happening precisely because manufacturers are giving a flying fuck. They’re seeing that the AI bubble is about to burst, and that this increased demand won’t last for long. So why spend tons of money on expanding production capacity when said capacity wouldn’t even be used?
Not to mention that the current pricing bump is entirely on the OEMs, not the ODMs (ODM here being the DRAM manufacturers, OEMs being the RAM module manufacturers). OEMs have already bought and paid for the DRAM they’re selling right now, as it takes generally 2-3 months from manufacturing for the product to hit the shelves, and DRAM modules are usually bought at least 6 months, but usually 12-18 months ahead. Meaning these fuckers bought the DRAM cheap, saw the possibility of there being scarcity in the future, took a guess on how much they will need to inflate prices to reduce demand… And immediately jumped to those prices because if morons will pay £1000 for 64GB of RAM instead of £200, even though the production cost is still at £50… Well that’s just “good business” to maximise profits, innit?
Isnt some AI bro hoarding a fuckton of CPUs because there arent enough servers to put them into?
Yeah. There’s been reports of silicon wafers being hoarded too…
Hello depreciation!
Or would be if it wasn’t for all the market manipulation.
GPUs, not CPUs.
Yeah more or less. The Verge did a whole podcast episode on RAM over the holidays. It was a good explainer.
Basically, RAM that goes into AI data centers isn’t necessarily the same as RAM in your computer. There are only 3 companies making RAM. They are altering their fabrication lines to accommodate for the commercial/AI ram so they can make more money. That means they can’t produce consumer RAM.
It’s hard and expensive to build RAM and chip factories because there is one company that makes the machine that does it. So anyone who wants to stay a RAM factory is at their mercy.
The Verge reporter said he expects ram prices might go up significantly more in the next 6months to a year.
AI companies have basically pre-ordered a fuck ton of components that have not been manufactured yet to be put into computers that haven’t even been made yet for datacenters that are not even built yet all on an electrical grid that hasn’t caught up.
Beautiful. The very definition of a bubble.
This is just a meme, I hope it all comes down and the bubble bursts and I can build a PC but te thought that a supply chain operates one piece at a time is ridiculous.
It is purely about the line going up, but they are thinking ten steps ahead which is why tech wants fascists who grab mineral resources.
They’re doing this because these AI companies have basically pre-ordered a fuck ton of components that have not been manufactured yet to be put into computers that haven’t even been made yet for datacenters that are not even built yet all on an electrical grid that hasn’t caught up.
throwing us AI slop summaries in our faces to create a demand that doesn’t yet exist, to generate a profit that will never exist.
What’s crazy is that they aren’t just doing this because they make more money with AI.
No, they really are making more money by selling whole wafers rather than packaging and soldering onto DIMMs. The AI companies are throwing so much money at this that it’s just much more profitable for the memory companies to sell directly to them.
I mean, you took the first sentence out and ignored the rest of what I said. My point was that yes that is a reason, but it’s not the only reason. My point was they don’t wanna sell to consumers because Elon Musk is just gonna pre-order their entire stock for the next two years.
Everything else that you said seems to fit the general thesis that they’re making a lot more money selling to AI companies.
If those reasons were still true but the memory companies stood to not make as much money on those deals, I guarantee the memory manufacturers wouldn’t have taken the deal. They only care about money, and the other reasons you list are just the mechanisms for making more money.
What you just described has so many possible points of failure that I can only state that I hope any of it breaks and the circus comes falling down.
It will be horrendous to see the aftermath.
I hope we will see RAM at volume discount. I want to see these companies hurting to attempt to liquidate a fraction of the inventory.
GEEEEEE, what a coincidence, eh? Almost like these companies may be coordinating some sort of market shift for some reason.
What do you call that when a bunch of companies responsible for large swathes of market share of a particular good or service use the guise of unnatural market pressure to create conditions unnaturally beneficial to themselves and not consumers?
No no you don’t understand, the free market will have a bunch of companies just dying to jump into this huge opportunity the market created!
Any minute now…
Aaaaaaaanyyyyy minute…
Guys? Any minute right? Right?
💀
Please hold. The invisible hand of the market is on its way. Please hold. Nothing is wrong with your economy. The invisible hand of the market is on its way. Please hold. Do not attempt to adjust your economy. Trust the invisible hand. Please hold…
According to the article, it might be a company in China, but that remains to be seen. They could just as easily pivot into AI bullshit to try to get a piece of that pie before the bubble pops.
Cartel.
Looking forward to see their CEO’s picachu face when they ask their governments handouts to compete with Chinese RAM that has in between entered the market…
At least in the USA there’s a good chance they’ll get it too, despite The Don’s inability to say “China” without derision.
SK Hynix (and Samsung) is worse than Micron.
Micron scrapped Crucial, the consumer brand they owned.
SK Hynix and Samsung never even directly sold to consumers to begin with.
SK Hynix and Samsung were the ones who signed deals with OpenAI on the same day for 40% of the entire fucking planet’s DRAM supply that kicked off the DRAM panic buying to begin with! This mess is their fault!
Micron are absolutely shifting to more profitable HBM production in order to make the most of the AI bubble, and they’re fucking us over in doing so, but IMO what they’re doing pales in comparison to the levels of fuckery that SK/Samsung have done with the shady backroom OpenAI deals. I repeat… 40% of Earth’s RAM production.
It really angers me that those two have so far escaped media wrath while Micron was exclusively taking the hit for an entire shady industry. Blame all of these fuckers. Blame OpenAI. Blame Nvidia.
Me, on a 13yo laptop and a 5yo phone: don’t worry, we still own the internet.
So I FOMO bought an SSD and SD card when all this started.
Not regretting it.
…But now I’m considering hoarding a spare GPU. Is that nuts? I don’t need it, I don’t want to hoard, but If my old Ampere card suddenly dies, is it gonna take $2000 to replace?
I mean, look what happened with the crypto boom and that wasn’t overly mainstream companies. So not nuts imo. But maybe get a less expensive GPU to hedge your bets 🤷♂️
Oh, I know. I bought my previous GPUs in the peak of cypto busts.
But I need 24GB… My plan was to eventually buy a used 4090 when they get cheaper, or 24GB Intel/AMD card. But it doesn’t feel like AMD/Intel are interested in big GPUs anymore, and the 4090 just keeps going up in price.
The RX 7900xtx is 24gb and sells right now for around $900.
This is an option.
The problem is, while faster on paper, its not really any faster than my 3090, especially in spots where I need its performance most. It’d be a downgrade.
I could get a second 3090, I guess, and have some redundancy in case one fails. But I’m on an ITX board with 1 slot.
I’d be WAY more interested in a roughly equivalent 9000 series or Battlemage card, but alas, there is none.
