I think you’re doing Lukashenko discredit. While he’s certainly not a nice man he’s one of the very few people whose political careers survived the end of the soviet union, not only that but he prevented shock therapy from happening in Belarus, keeping much of the industry. More recently he managed to avoid the US attempts at regime change and successfully crack down on NED funded NGOs that existed to achieve those ends. All the potato memes should be seen as just that - memes. Lukashenko was the obvious party to go to as capable of being trusted by both Prigo and Putin, able to provide security and assurances to both. Very few others could have done it, Erdogan perhaps but Prigo is wanted for conspiracy to defraud the US in the west, he’s on the FBI lists, so he couldn’t go to a country with any extradition treaty with the US.
As for the Russian public they seem to view both sides of this disagreement positively, which is the complicated part of it. From their perspective this is two sides that they like having a disagreement. They love Wagner as war heroes but also love the Russian army as heroes too. So this whole situation is a “please stop fighting we like both of you” issue, how much of that is motivated by not wanting it to affect the frontlines is uncertain.
ya know… i can accept that I underestimated Lukashenko, but the swiftness of his response combined with the stunning and peaceful 180 by Prigo… you must admit, it’s very suspicious. The clockwork timing of it all suggests something more complicated going on. This all feels like theater.
Will you reassess this thought in 3-4 weeks if/when nothing else happens? I think it’s extremely unlikely that this is a grand scheme and that the reason this is being pushed comes from the fact that they have to keep the idea alive that Russia could collapse at any moment. If it isn’t a grand scheme then its failure forces the acceptance that Russia isn’t going to collapse and that the war is therefore entirely unwinnable, so it is much easier to present this as not having been a real coup/rebellion at all in order to keep that belief alive.
who is this mysterious “they”? And how did “they” get Prigozhin and Lukashenko to do this for “them” for the reasons you say? you claim it’s not some “grand scheme” yet, in the next breath, you claim another?
If it isn’t a grand scheme then its failure forces the acceptance that Russia isn’t going to collapse and that the war is therefore entirely unwinnable.
And how in the world do you get from here to there? Because all i see now is a fractured and demoralized military that’s lost all momentum, a weakened Putin, a shocked Russian public, and Prigozian and Lukashenko (and who knows who else) lurking in the wings. A lot has already changed, and uncertainty abounds.
Oh I apologise I forget sometimes everyone here isn’t a marxist now after the reddit waves, marxists would just pick up the intention from context and keeping up with news via parties and groups they’re in. The “they” here is generally western aligned think tanks and forces. In particular the Atlantic Council which is largely responsible for a lot of US policy has been pushing it around in the media recently.
And how in the world do you get from here to there? Because all i see now is a fractured and demoralized military that’s lost all momentum, a weakened Putin, a shocked Russian public, and Prigozian and Lukashenko (and who knows who else) lurking in the wings. A lot has already changed, and uncertainty abounds.
A marxist understanding of the war in Ukraine is as a war that was created by the west, led by the US, that benefits quite a significant number of MIC forces with large influence over US policy. Part of the narrative that maintains support for the war is the ongoing belief that Russia can be defeated, and the method of Russian defeated that has been drummed up is “Russia will collapse” as everyone with any sense can see that there is no military means of victory. If the “Russia will collapse” narrative is destroyed by the reality of a rebellion demonstrating massive support that makes any collapse obviously impossible then the entire house of cards that has been constructed falls down. Thus the result is pushing in the media the notion that it wasn’t a real rebellion but instead a grand scheme by devious clever russians.
If you have questions about how the left interprets the war I’m happy to answer.
that’s an… interesting viewpoint, and, as a “Westerner”, i see little evidence to support this narrative aside from some Western think tanks both existing and, perhaps thinking what you propose. US media discusses a wide variety of possibilities and theories about what might be happening regarding this incident, but nothing is known for certain, especially who might prevail in this war.
as for what started this war? that was Russia’s illegal invasion of another sovereign nation. period. and, unless you’re implying that “the West” or even the US somehow controls him or his actions, I don’t see how either had anything to do with Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
that’s an… interesting viewpoint, and, as a “Westerner”, i see little evidence to support this narrative aside from some Western think tanks both existing and, perhaps thinking what you propose.
You only need to look at (very small) sample of the attendees of the Atlantic Council’s meetings to see that it is directly responsible for a huge amount of policy. These people aren’t attending for a laugh, they attend because they know its power and have the same interests and goals as the organisation.
Understanding the role of these organisations in the wider net of actors is a fundamental knowledge area that most liberals don’t have as a result of only really paying attention to media, who always play their role down as the media functions as fundamental collaborators with state interests.
as for what started this war? that was Russia’s illegal invasion of another sovereign nation. period. and, unless you’re implying that “the West” or even the US somehow controls him or his actions, I don’t see how either had anything to do with Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
This is the liberal western interpretation. It is not the global left’s interpretation which has a fairly significant consensus that this war was caused by nato expansionism, ignoring fair security concerns, and the 2014 coup that led to the civil war that preceded this. The left generally doesn’t view this war as having started in 2022 but instead in 2014, with Russia eventually joining as a belligerent after exhausting the potential methods of ending it via the Minsk agreements. Both the anarchist and socialist left worldwide pretty much agrees on this, with people ranging from Chomsky, Vijay Prashad, Wolff, Yanis Varoufakis, Lula, Corbyn, Cuba, Bolivia, european socialist parties etc etc etc all having the same take across the board. None of whom get much media exposure of that of course, because like I said before the western media is collaborative with the interests of western states.
I think for context I should add that I live in the UK and that from the perspective of British politics, american liberals are to the right of our conservatives, most of you would be Tories in the UK. Understanding this context is probably important for you to understand that I do not include liberals when I say “left” or “global left”, the american democrats are extremely right wing.
it’s not a matter of “interpretation.” Russia invaded a sovereign nation. Illegally. A war ensued as a direct consequence of that illegal invasion, and nobody but Russia is to blame.
you can cast aspersions at all of the people and nations and political ideologies you don’t like, but it doesn’t change those facts.
It’s completely a matter of interpretation and narratives. The western community has one that serves their interests while Russia has one that serves their interests. Meanwhile the left has a completely different one that recognises the military industrial complex of america profiting off of its new forever war while millions of innocents are sent to their deaths.
You subscribe to the liberal one. That’s fine. I do not.
I suspect our opinions differ on what “sovereign” actually is here too. I don’t consider much of Europe to be particularly sovereign, but instead to be vassal states of US empire referred to colloquially by the american media as “the international community”, a funny name given that it excludes 2 thirds of the world. We probably differ on that opinion as well though.
I think you’re doing Lukashenko discredit. While he’s certainly not a nice man he’s one of the very few people whose political careers survived the end of the soviet union, not only that but he prevented shock therapy from happening in Belarus, keeping much of the industry. More recently he managed to avoid the US attempts at regime change and successfully crack down on NED funded NGOs that existed to achieve those ends. All the potato memes should be seen as just that - memes. Lukashenko was the obvious party to go to as capable of being trusted by both Prigo and Putin, able to provide security and assurances to both. Very few others could have done it, Erdogan perhaps but Prigo is wanted for conspiracy to defraud the US in the west, he’s on the FBI lists, so he couldn’t go to a country with any extradition treaty with the US.
As for the Russian public they seem to view both sides of this disagreement positively, which is the complicated part of it. From their perspective this is two sides that they like having a disagreement. They love Wagner as war heroes but also love the Russian army as heroes too. So this whole situation is a “please stop fighting we like both of you” issue, how much of that is motivated by not wanting it to affect the frontlines is uncertain.
I mostly agree with the rest.
ya know… i can accept that I underestimated Lukashenko, but the swiftness of his response combined with the stunning and peaceful 180 by Prigo… you must admit, it’s very suspicious. The clockwork timing of it all suggests something more complicated going on. This all feels like theater.
Will you reassess this thought in 3-4 weeks if/when nothing else happens? I think it’s extremely unlikely that this is a grand scheme and that the reason this is being pushed comes from the fact that they have to keep the idea alive that Russia could collapse at any moment. If it isn’t a grand scheme then its failure forces the acceptance that Russia isn’t going to collapse and that the war is therefore entirely unwinnable, so it is much easier to present this as not having been a real coup/rebellion at all in order to keep that belief alive.
who is this mysterious “they”? And how did “they” get Prigozhin and Lukashenko to do this for “them” for the reasons you say? you claim it’s not some “grand scheme” yet, in the next breath, you claim another?
And how in the world do you get from here to there? Because all i see now is a fractured and demoralized military that’s lost all momentum, a weakened Putin, a shocked Russian public, and Prigozian and Lukashenko (and who knows who else) lurking in the wings. A lot has already changed, and uncertainty abounds.
Oh I apologise I forget sometimes everyone here isn’t a marxist now after the reddit waves, marxists would just pick up the intention from context and keeping up with news via parties and groups they’re in. The “they” here is generally western aligned think tanks and forces. In particular the Atlantic Council which is largely responsible for a lot of US policy has been pushing it around in the media recently.
A marxist understanding of the war in Ukraine is as a war that was created by the west, led by the US, that benefits quite a significant number of MIC forces with large influence over US policy. Part of the narrative that maintains support for the war is the ongoing belief that Russia can be defeated, and the method of Russian defeated that has been drummed up is “Russia will collapse” as everyone with any sense can see that there is no military means of victory. If the “Russia will collapse” narrative is destroyed by the reality of a rebellion demonstrating massive support that makes any collapse obviously impossible then the entire house of cards that has been constructed falls down. Thus the result is pushing in the media the notion that it wasn’t a real rebellion but instead a grand scheme by devious clever russians.
If you have questions about how the left interprets the war I’m happy to answer.
that’s an… interesting viewpoint, and, as a “Westerner”, i see little evidence to support this narrative aside from some Western think tanks both existing and, perhaps thinking what you propose. US media discusses a wide variety of possibilities and theories about what might be happening regarding this incident, but nothing is known for certain, especially who might prevail in this war.
as for what started this war? that was Russia’s illegal invasion of another sovereign nation. period. and, unless you’re implying that “the West” or even the US somehow controls him or his actions, I don’t see how either had anything to do with Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
You only need to look at (very small) sample of the attendees of the Atlantic Council’s meetings to see that it is directly responsible for a huge amount of policy. These people aren’t attending for a laugh, they attend because they know its power and have the same interests and goals as the organisation.
Understanding the role of these organisations in the wider net of actors is a fundamental knowledge area that most liberals don’t have as a result of only really paying attention to media, who always play their role down as the media functions as fundamental collaborators with state interests.
This is the liberal western interpretation. It is not the global left’s interpretation which has a fairly significant consensus that this war was caused by nato expansionism, ignoring fair security concerns, and the 2014 coup that led to the civil war that preceded this. The left generally doesn’t view this war as having started in 2022 but instead in 2014, with Russia eventually joining as a belligerent after exhausting the potential methods of ending it via the Minsk agreements. Both the anarchist and socialist left worldwide pretty much agrees on this, with people ranging from Chomsky, Vijay Prashad, Wolff, Yanis Varoufakis, Lula, Corbyn, Cuba, Bolivia, european socialist parties etc etc etc all having the same take across the board. None of whom get much media exposure of that of course, because like I said before the western media is collaborative with the interests of western states.
I think for context I should add that I live in the UK and that from the perspective of British politics, american liberals are to the right of our conservatives, most of you would be Tories in the UK. Understanding this context is probably important for you to understand that I do not include liberals when I say “left” or “global left”, the american democrats are extremely right wing.
it’s not a matter of “interpretation.” Russia invaded a sovereign nation. Illegally. A war ensued as a direct consequence of that illegal invasion, and nobody but Russia is to blame.
you can cast aspersions at all of the people and nations and political ideologies you don’t like, but it doesn’t change those facts.
It’s completely a matter of interpretation and narratives. The western community has one that serves their interests while Russia has one that serves their interests. Meanwhile the left has a completely different one that recognises the military industrial complex of america profiting off of its new forever war while millions of innocents are sent to their deaths.
You subscribe to the liberal one. That’s fine. I do not.
I suspect our opinions differ on what “sovereign” actually is here too. I don’t consider much of Europe to be particularly sovereign, but instead to be vassal states of US empire referred to colloquially by the american media as “the international community”, a funny name given that it excludes 2 thirds of the world. We probably differ on that opinion as well though.