politics @lemmy.worldEnglish · 1 day ago

The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

www.natesilver.net

The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

www.natesilver.net

geekwithsoul@lemm.ee to

politics @lemmy.worldEnglish · 1 day ago

4 reasons why you’re better off ignoring it.

On average, the D less R margin in the early vote mispredicted the final Clinton/Trump margin by 14 points! Pollsters get yelled at when their polls are off by even 3 points, and anything more than that is considered an absolute disaster. Imagine if a poll was off by 14 points: no one would ever listen to it again! And yet we get the same frankly amateurish analysis of the early vote in every election.

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