cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 5 months agoNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netexternal-linkmessage-square71fedilinkarrow-up1119arrow-down129
arrow-up190arrow-down1external-linkNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netcyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 5 months agomessage-square71fedilink
minus-squarerandon31415@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up4arrow-down1·5 months agoIs that a 65% chance of a Trump electoral college or popular vote victory? I think last time it predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote. Then she did.
minus-squaretko@tkohhh.sociallinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2·5 months agoIt was not a prediction of victory… it was a 71% chance of winning the electoral college. Said another way, they gave her a 29% chance of losing. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Is that a 65% chance of a Trump electoral college or popular vote victory? I think last time it predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote. Then she did.
It was not a prediction of victory… it was a 71% chance of winning the electoral college. Said another way, they gave her a 29% chance of losing.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/