Former President Donald Trump on Sunday called for recusal of the judge presiding over the federal case that alleges he illegally conspired to overturn his election loss to President Joe Biden in 2020.
Former President Donald Trump on Sunday called for recusal of the judge presiding over the federal case that alleges he illegally conspired to overturn his election loss to President Joe Biden in 2020.
The chances of him getting a hung jury is actually incredibly high. I doubt they’ll weed out all his supporters in jury selection. I honestly don’t think they can convict him.
The only way he’s getting a hung jury is if Hunter Biden is called. /s Bazinga!
Math time! Let’s assume that all people who make it to a jury have an X% chance of never voting to convict Trump regardless of the evidence. In order to be found guilty, trump would have 100*(1-X/100)^12 % chance of being found guilty and 100-last number of getting a hung jury. For reference, if X=10%, Trump has a 28.8% chance of being declared guilty.
But wait! There is more! More indictments! Currently three. Let us assume that if a case is hung, the prosecutor doesn’t refile it. Let’s take the amount we got from the last problem, and call it Y% of getting a conviction. The chances of all three being hung are (1-Y/100)^3, or 100*(1-(1-X/100)12)3. Again, let us assume X=10%, then there is a 37% chance that all three are hung, or a 63% chance that he goes to prison. More separate indictments mean more protections from MAGAs making on juries.