That’s always possible I suppose but I don’t think so. The crisis in 2011 rocked markets for months with monstrous daily swings up and down. There was barely a blip when fitch downgraded the debt and during the last few debt ceiling impasses.

Personally I think it’s pretty clear at this point that it is just theater and they’ll never allow a default. The reason being, all of congress is too wealthy and heavily invested in stable world markets, and obviously in the pockets of their corporate overlords who feel the same. A default would be catastrophic so it’s just not going to happen.