Decarbonise already FFS, make this irrelevant
Irrelevant for us. The loss of a major shipping route is always going to be a blow to the regional economy.
If all they export is poison…
They also export fertilizer. You know, the stuff that makes food.
You think Iran is the only one using that route?
The entire world uses it because the alternative is to sail all the way around Africa. If this straight is blocked, you can count on all supply chains being fucked up, prices going up world wide, shortages of everything world wide.
This is like the Panama canal disappearing, I would be disastrous for all of us
You are thinking about the Red Sea/Suez Canal.
The Straight of Hormuz is the only way into and out off the Persian Gulf. Unless a ship has business in the Persian Gulf, it has no reason to cross the straight.
I don’t see how sailing around Africa is a plausible alternative to the Strait of Hormuz…
It basically just means zero access in/out of the Persian Gulf at all. The closest thing to an alternative is overland access to the Red Sea through Saudi Arabia.
Now if we were talking about the Suez canal, that would make sense.
Yeah… so, have you looked at a map lately?
The Red sea is actually next door (on the other side of the Arabic peninsula).
Trump, the climate change denialist, doing his best to speed up the green energy transition.
Just a chaos cultist trying to heat up the world.
Trump went like “Why just stop with US when I can fuck supermarket prices globally”
If US politicians ever imposed consequences on rich elites we might have avoided having had to learn the lesson of consequences from Iran.
What do ya know, consequences. Carpet combing, killing their kids and turning their country into fucking hellscape.
Wait, the uNazied States of america government blatantly lied? I’m shocked!!
Please, someone tell me I’m not the only idiot that read this and thought they were trying to do the other type of mining.
The one that doesn’t make sense at all, but rather than realising that’s not the mining they were doing, because it doesn’t make sense. I just got more confused as to what they possibly could have found there worth mining for in the middle of a war.
I have you tagged as Old Fool for some reason. This comment makes that tag extra hilarious.
I know why :)
I see you’re calm since I stayed off your lawn.
Oil companies and oil tanker crews are subject to the same fog of war as everyone else. They don’t know if there are mines. They don’t know if they can trust the US government to protect them or pay out the insurance. They have seen US bases get bombed. They don’t know if the US is lying or not because trust in the US is at an all time low.
It doesn’t matter if the strait is mined or not, because the perception the strait could be mined is enough. It is simply not worth the risk.
Edit: lmao nevermind. 3 ships just tried running the blockade. Emphasis on tried
They don’t know if the US is lying or not because trust in the US is at an all time low.
Yup.
I wonder why.
Oh right because the US commander-in-queef is a Russian shill because Russia managed to influence the US enough to make the whole country cognitively challenged through environmental lead (more of an accident than anything purposefully neurotoxic but anyway) and the destruction of the US education system.
Wait, do people really believe that Trump is the culmination of a 70 year Soviet and Russian campaign, and all of America’s mistakes leading up to today are the result of this? Seems a little far-fetched imo
Culmination? Nah. Just a step in a game.
But yeah, Trump is very clearly a Russian shill. Where have you been living for the past 10 years?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Links_between_Trump_associates_and_Russian_officials
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_the_2016_United_States_elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_the_2024_United_States_elections
It’s so obvious that anyone actually arguing Trump isn’t a Russian shill is almost definitely a Russian shill themselves.
I remember thinking it was a silly idea in 2016, too. Like, the supposed “interference” was facebook ads featuring buff Bernie, stuff like that. It just seems like it’s a way to make an excuse for the US (and more specifically the Democrats), like their problems aren’t of their own making and everything is Russia’s fault. Linking it all the way back to Kruschev is especially ridiculous.
But, supposing it is actually a plot that goes all the way back to the Krushchev era, good for them. It worked perfectly. The gameshow man is radpidly destroying America.
Found the guy who bought into the propaganda.
The evidence is all right there. Do you think Putin is the leader of Russia because of honest elections and he’s just the best candidate and Russian democracy works?
Cmon man. Russians have bought celebrities from the US for longer than either of us has been alive. There’s a reason the most chess GM’s come from Russia. They play the long game.
They’re terrifyingly good at spycraft.
So like, was George Bush a Russian puppet too? The Iraq war harmed America. Was Obama a Russian puppet for cancelling the public option and letting the bankers get away with crashing the economy?Was Biden a Russian puppet, since he was sleepy and feckless?
I’m a lot more inclined that your problems are due to institutional and societal rot, accumulated failures, a lack of planning, etc., rather than a grand Russian conspiracy. But if that’s true and you’re penetrated to the point where your government is just secretly controlled by Russia, I think you should just ask China to annex you. That way you at least could have a functioning country.
Strawmen.
“Uh you’re saying Russia has completely controlled the US for several decades.”
No I didn’t lol, learn 2 read a bit.
Challenge the facts instead pushing your childish whatabout strawmen.
“Your problems”
Roflmao illiterate bro. Too illiterate. I’m not American in the slightest. I could drive to St Petersburg in a matter of hours.
Challenge the facts.
A Russian asset: Trump’s policy behavior confirms evidence he was groomed by the Kremlin since the 1980s
Once again posting this chart because when you realize which age group has the most enthusiastic Trump supporters, and you recognize the correlation between their behavior habits and the neuropsychological symptoms of lead poisoning during childhood development, everything starts to make way more sense.
Some of the symptoms include being more prone to anger/rage, which itself inhibits logical, critical thinking. They literally used to spike vehicle fuel with it, dump it in paint, etc.
- Poor speech articulation
- Poor language understanding or usage
- Problems maintaining attention in school or home
- Problems with learning and remembering new information
- Rigid, inflexible problem-solving abilities
- Delayed general intellectual abilities
- Learning problems in school (reading, language, math, writing)
- Problems controlling behavior (e.g., aggressive, impulsive)
The study specifically identifies atmospheric lead from additives in gasoline as a substantial source. Which makes sense since the highest incidences coincide with peak leaded gas usage.
Trump and the US’s current target is the Soviet oil reserves as it has been from day one. The conflict in Ukraine was a result of Western oil companies trying to meddle with Soviet Era oil blocs in the Black sea, a fight that is still ongoing today. The US already controls Arabian oil, not Iran’s, and if they can successfully replace Iran’s government with a puppet, then it will be easier to break into the Soviet Union from the Southern Asia boarders.
Sure yeah I. Don’t disagree too much with anything you’ve said there.
I just think Trumps skills at war is less than Putin’s skill at spycraft.
Huh. I haven’t seen a picture of Khrushchev recently, but I rewatched Enemy at the Gates the other day, and I guess Bob Hoskins did a surprisingly accurate portrayal (with kudos to the makeup department, too).
Huh. I haven’t seen Enemy at the Gates in a long time, guess I should rewatch.
But yeah I post that pic pretty frequently on Lemmy weird you haven’t seen it before but I guess Fediverse is wider than I think.
Tanker-insurance is impossible to get, now, therefore there simply won’t be any ships going through, until that gets remedied.
& it won’t get remedied until MUCH more than “an assertion that it’s clear” is in-place.
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-warfare-how-seven-insurance
It’s going to be 1/4y MINIMUM before ships begin going through, again, from the looks of that…
maybe closer to a year.
Dominoes got BIG, thanks to the economic-rules underpinning everything in industry…
_ /\ _
If only this wall could have been prevented. Sadly that was impossible since the US started it for no reason at all, oh wait.
They don’t know if they can trust the US government to protect them or pay out the insurance.
With how many of Trump’s lawyers got their bills paid in full and on time, I would be skeptical too.
seems like they will reroute through egypt and to SE’ASIA to avoid the mines at this point.
Gas prices go brrrrrrr
Wright posted that “the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets,” crediting President Donald Trump with “maintaining stability of global energy during the military operations against Iran.”
Within hours, a senior source in the IRGC’s naval force told Iranian outlet Iran Now that the claim “has no basis in truth,” insisting that no US-escorted tanker had transited the strait.
The source described the announcement as part of a “media war and attempts to mislead public opinion,” adding that the strait remains under “precise surveillance” by Iranian forces and that “any military movement in the area is fully monitored.”
Wright subsequently deleted the post without public explanation, undermining a week of administration messaging aimed at convincing the world that commercial traffic would soon resume.
For an administration that relies so heavily on propaganda lies, they are remarkably terrible at lying.
In any case, even if it were true and not a pathetic lie, Donald Trump would deserve no credit for slightly mitigating the problems Donald Trump caused when Donald Trump decided to start bombing Iran and slaughtering its civilians.
The trick is the people they’re lying to won’t look past the surface, so the lie does not have to be good.
I used to work for Anthroplogie (kinda bougie clothing store). We sold bound copies of On Bullshit, marketed largely because the title is funny and would look good on a coffee table. One day, while it was slow, I started reading it. In case folks don’t know, it’s actually a guy’s doctoral thesis for his philosophy degree and aims to establish “bullshit” as a philosophical category. It’s brilliant and completely changed the way I see things.
See, philosophy is battle between truth and falsehood. The author argues that bullshit is a greater threat to truth than a lie. This is because a lie needs the truth in order to be effective, whereas bullshit does not care one way or another. What we’re seeing now is not the US government lying to people. It’s the US government spouting bullshit. So yeah, they don’t care if the lie is good. Because they’re not lying. They’re bullshitting.
EDIT: Apparently there are now two books with that title! The one of which I’m referring is by Harry Frankfurt (and is available online as a PDF if I’m not mistaken).
So there is apparently two different books titled that. Is it the Harry Frankfurt one?
Ah, yes. That one.
Some people just want to believe I guess. Like they could start pushing lies that trump cured cancer and there would be some people that believed it with no credible evidence even as they died from cancer. The media would spin words to make it not sound like complete fabrication but rather everyone being misdiagnosed, and then appease some moderates by stating cancers are all different issues really, so they don’t really have cancer but a more acutely defined illness and at the end of the day 30% of Americans would answer polls that Trump cured cancer, 30% say he didn’t cure cancer and 40% didn’t know how they felt or if their head was infact in their ass at that very moment. Because yes, several of them look around and only see shit.
the timeline in which the IGRC’s public statement are more trustworthy than US officials…
At a certain point the propaganda stops making any sense on purpose. It’s not designed to deceive. It’s used to identify resistance.
1984 ass
They have always been bad at lying. Every lie this administration tells is obviously transparent, if they were good enough to concoct a reasonable lie they would be intelligent enough to not get involved in a war with an oil producing country without first restocking their oil reserves. No one this administration has any brains at all.
“Flood the zone with shit” means it’s more important to tell many lies fast than to tell any lies well.
Prices for everything will increase…again. Thank to the MAGA and Likud fucknuts!
Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please. Machiavelli
The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it.
- George Orwell
Markets going up in response.
Lolz. Lmao, even.
Trump said it’s almost over, so uhh, I guess mission accomplished?
We certainly didn’t hear about Epstein the past couple of weeks so yeah, mission accomplished
I hear things. Operation Epstein’s Fury and all.
We certainly didn’t hear about Epstein
Yes we did.
Its because European countries announced they are going to release strategic reserves.
I still don’t get it though because that only covers 2 weeks and Iran has already taken down some permanent capacity in the region and a bunch of places had to stop pumping (meaning well mineralization and reopening times of months). I would expect oil to be at $100 even with the strategic reserves announcement.
Ah, but you see that’s a problem for future people.
Fuck future me. I got mine!
In the next couple weeks, demand is going to go down as the weather warms up. After that, they have all summer to to work on shifting production to renewables as much as possible and shifting fossil fuel suppliers to ones that don’t need to use that strait.
Summer somewhat affects natural gas. Demand for petrol and fertilizer doesn’t go down in the summer. There’s no way renewables are going to have an effect on the demand for those commodities in the next 12 months.
How much sense it makes depends on which markets went up. If, for example, you are an Alberta oil producer, this situation is wonder for the bottom line.
The convoy idea is so dumb that I can’t believe anyone said it out loud. Effective strategy against commerce raiders, which Iran explicitly does not have. Might as well offer to mount a CIWS on tankers and hope your insurance premiums will see it as a wash (they won’t). Makes as much sense as suggesting you counter drones with cavalry.
If I was one of those oil companies, I’d say sure. You staff the tanker with your people and you insure us for any losses incurred. Also, put an upfront amount of insurance money in escrow.
But we’re not risking lives, merchandise, and equipment. You want the oil that badly. You move it. We’re just going to raise oil prices to cover our losses in the meantime, so we’re fine.
Oh they tried this, admin offered to pay oil companies for damages and move it themselves. Little catch there is tanker ships take half a decade or longer to build. The companies cannot afford to roll the dice on losing one, even if they’ll get reimbursed for the ship. They lose capacity ($$$) waiting for the replacement.
Yeah, losses would wouldn’t just be the cargo and the ship, it would be a decade long hit to earnings. And I’d want to see money for all of that, in escrow, before I moved an inch. Trump is famous for not paying his debts. I’d want all that money secured upfront.
And USA doesn’t build those ships.
Who does build those ships?
China and South Korea, but mostly China.
It’s not just normal insurance cost either. These ships take years to replace. They also have to insure against the multiple years worth of profits and loss of market share.
Exactly. It’s the ship, the goods, the lost earning over many years, severance for staff that won’t be used, etc. It would be mess.
I also wonder how clean up for a spill would be handled. Currently that’s managed by Iran and the vessel that spilled pays.
Also, if they sink in a bad spot, they’ll physically block the strait. It’s a narrow corridor that’s navigable.
Insurance companies won’t touch it.
Of course. The US government would have to insure it. No private company is touching that with a 10 foot pole.
No company is going to trust insurance from this administration though. That’s the problem with having a Trump who famously never pays his debts.
Which is why I said insurance in escrow.
Trump is famous for stiffing people. I’d want that money paid upfront and held in escrow by an independent financial firm in a neutral nation.
If a ship gets hit, escrow pays out for the oil, the ship, and the loss of future earnings. If the ships never sink, the money goes back to the US.
The math on the convoy doesn’t make sense to me.
The larger the convoy becomes a more attractive target, as a single salvo of missiles has greater chance of bypassing missile defences and hitting any target.
Plus they have drones or missile boats, which would be harder to defend against. You can do missile defence in a radius around a ship, but now there’s obstacles and small fast moving targets that only need to land 1 hit and can use blind spots.
So I guess you need 3+ navy ships to form a perimeter and guard a few tankers at once.
But now there’s mines, so your perimeter becomes another vulnerability, you’ve increased the surface area where mines can be.
So now you can add more navy ships to get better geometry but it’s a much higher cost.
Also, the US lies about what it is going to do all the time.
In fact, there is a big fat lie right in this article in which the US claimed to have already escorted a ship through despite the fact that they simply did nothing of the sort.
Would you be willing to stake the economic future of your company, the lives of your staff, and millions of dollars of equipment and product on the promise and competence of these guys?
Makes as much sense as suggesting you counter drones with cavalry.
Not drones exactly but this is a sound straregy in the early civilization games
The Shahed-136 uses a MD550 engine, spec sheet says that’s 50 horsepower. An actual horse has a peak output somewhere between 10 and 15 horsepower[1] so it should only take 4 or 5 horses to match/exceed the Shahed’s strength. Seems reasonable enough to me, it’s simple math.
Stevenson, Robert & Wassersug, Richard. (1993). Horsepower from a horse. Nature. 364. 195. 10.1038/364195a0. ↩︎
After a decade of trump you still can’t believe he would say something like this out loud?
Nice to see the US government still supporting EVs these days.
I still think that EV rebates and tax credits would be more cost efficient and much less jarring than provoking Iran into destroying 20% of the world’s oil supply… but I guess that I am too simple-minded for politics.
Gas is $5 near me. EVs are gonna start flying off dealer’s lots subsidy or not
No joke, electricity is getting so expensive that I was just about break even on running my PHEV on gas vs. electric… Then this happens to make the choice easy again
Well funding for those data centers are getting blown up… literally in the case of Amazon’s data center. So we might get to see that AI bubble pop that we have all been hearing so much about. That should help a little bit. Too bad Trump is offsetting that by cancelling all renewable projects though.
thats probably due to the AI slop datacenters hogging all the juice.
