Due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies
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Seems too conservative projection for wind energy, but yeah most experts agree solar will be dominant.
I mean I understand this is modeling a pathway with no further climate policy, but still wind being second cheapest option should gain more share.
I think the assumption is that since they are large and but the first most cost efficient, it doesn’t make sense to increase its share. Why not just put more solar instead?
I see from this paper that compared with Way et al. (2022), they introduced “learning in operational costs, rather than only in CAPEX”, which benefits solar and offshore wind, also “solar power and wind energy see a higher learning rate than previous model versions”. So very surprised wind not gaining more.
It is difficult to compare the results of Way et al. (2022) and this paper directly since in the former final and usable energy were reported and here it is electricity that is reported in the text, although from their relative share (both across time and wind vs solar at a given time), the conditions for solar is probably more favorable and wind growth is more constrained in this paper.
(Note: if I recalled correctly, Way et al. were the first to develop this system dynamics model that made learning rates endogenous feedback processes.)
Why won’t we build more nuclear plants?
Politics mostly. It would be a solution, but it requires building a ton and building them fast. We can build nuclear power plants in a few years, but it usually takes a decade to work through the legal hassles opponents will put through. When factored in, not worth it anymore. And I am really angry at them because we could already be in a post-fossil fuel without this misguided pseudo-environmentalism.
Take a look at the cost overruns for Plant Vogtle 3 and 4 and it’ll answer your question.
Cost mostly. It’s really expensive, enough so that the first ~80% of the shift off fossil fuels is going to happen using solar + wind + storage.
To make sense for the last 20%, it’s going to need to come down in price enough to beat the emerging longer-duration storage technologies. Not at all clear to me that it can do that.
big oil kneecapped it and enviromentalists still think they’re thinly veiled bomb factories. you can tell because you substitute “thorium” for “nuclear” and favorability shoots up way more than you’d expect taking into account non-hysteria reasons
I think you’re best suited to answer your own question. Since you’re the one who wants to build nuclear, why don’t you do it?
If the answer is expertise, no problem, just hire people.
If the answer is money, just band together with others. Online discussions always have tons of people who want the same thing you do – you can pool your resources.
